Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
830 FXUS64 KJAN 101628 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Rest of today... Less active & tampered down heat is expected through the aftn, with a weak front expected to provide some focus/impetus for some aftn convection across the southern half of the area. Morning RAP/water vapor analysis indicates longwave trough centered across the Great Lakes to northeast states while upper low over west TX is trapped under mid-level ridging centered across the Four Corners to Intermountain West. At the sfc, a weak front is analyzed south of I-20 into the Hwy 84 corridor, with cooler thermo profiles/drier air < 1 inch PWs across the Mid-South while some moisture pooling >1.5 inches along & south of the I-20 corridor. There should be enough convergence for some late aftn showers to isolated-scattered storms in the far southern Hwy 84 to I-59 corridors. Morning 12Z sounding modification for the Hwy 84 corridor indicate lower end, slight chance of microburst potential, but copious DCAPE of >1000-1300 J/kg could support an isolated stronger storm in the far southern portions of Hwy 84, I-59 to Hwy 98 corridors. Main adjustments were to lower PoPs to confine this farther southward & confine thunderstorm probs closer to southern areas in line convective allowing model (CAM) guidance. Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 419 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Today and Tonight: As a weak cold front continues southward today, the most noticeable difference will be drier air spreading southward by the afternoon and evening. For areas south of Interstate 20, it will still be a fairly hot day with afternoon highs in the lower 90s and heat index values approaching 100 in some areas. For areas north of the Interstate, the slightly cooler and drier air should see those heat index values cap out around 85-90 degrees. Pooled moisture and instability along the cold front will also support better precip chances closer to the Gulf Coast under daytime heating, though an isolated shower or storm can`t be ruled out elsewhere in the area. Rain chances will taper off during the evening as drier air continues to overspread the area. Overnight lows will once again drop into the 60s areawide, and would not entirely be surprised to see an upper 50s reading or two around the US Highway 82 corridor. Temps around sunset should be falling into the 70s at most locations making for a nice summer evening. /NF/ Tuesday Through Sunday: Upper level troughing will dominate the long term period as high pressure moves southeast and becomes entrenched over the southern states. Northerly flow will continue as drier cooler air advects into the region behind the front. Rain chances have trended south of the area through a majority of the week as the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and the upper level low moving out of the southern plains are showing significantly slower timing, and impacts to our area won`t be until late week into the weekend. Tuesday- Wednesday, high temperatures will dip slightly into the mid to high 80s for most of the area with regions of the Pine Belt remaining in the low 90s. By Thursday we will see a warming trend as southerly flow from the aforementioned disturbance in the Gulf increases. PoPs for Thursday will remain unlikely as storm coverage will remain confined to our south. By Friday-Saturday could see the warmest temperatures of the year thus far with temps reaching the upper 90s in most areas. Beginning Friday we will also start to see increasing chances for isolated to scattered rain and storms for the southern portions of the CWA through this weekend. No heat related products are being advertised at the moment for Thursday-Saturday but are likely and will be re- evaluated on a day to day basis. /KP/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through the period, though some brief MVFR ceilings are possible through 15Z today as a cold front moves southward. Isolated to scattered SHRA or TSRA are possible generally north of Interstate 20 before 18Z and south of Interstate 20 between 18Z to 00Z. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 86 64 85 63 / 20 0 0 0 Meridian 87 62 87 62 / 10 0 0 0 Vicksburg 86 65 86 63 / 10 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 92 67 89 65 / 30 20 10 0 Natchez 87 67 86 64 / 20 10 0 0 Greenville 86 64 85 63 / 20 0 0 0 Greenwood 86 62 85 61 / 20 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/KP/NF