Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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784 FXUS64 KJAN 171507 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1007 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1002 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The forecast remains on track today with our early morning fog burning off throughout the CWA and showers expected to develop across the southern half of the forecast area today. The primary driving mechanism for the weather today has transitioned from Francine remnants to the interaction between a continental ridge and a deep retrograding low centered over the eastern parts of the Carolinas. This pattern has created easterly flow in SFC-700mb level which will dry out the northern half of the CWA, inhibiting our rain chances in those areas. Conversely, the offshore stationary boundary to our south will allow for a moderate amount of isentropic lift, coupled with high amounts of surface level moisture from previous rainfall totals, will provide enough of the necessary ingredients for light showers south of I-20 today. Nothing to get too excited about though as projected totals for today are not expected to exceed 0.10 inches. High relative humidity values and moderate cloud coverage are contributing to our smaller diurnal temperature swings, leading to cooler highs in the mid 80s F and seasonable lows in the mid 60s F. Winds are not expected to be particularly notable with generally calm easterly conditions persisting throughout today./OAJ/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Today and Tonight... Overall the forecast for the short term period remains on track with no major adjustment made. HREF model guidance is starting to pick up on some early morning fog potential mainly across the Golden Triangle and southwest portions of the area. Early morning hi-res guidance continues to show a stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. This combined with the presence of leftover tropical moisture will allow for afternoon/early evening scattered showers and storms generally for areas along and south of I-20. Forecast confidence is much higher today given that the latest GFS/NAM continues to hold onto rain chances through late Tuesday afternoon. The presence of cloud cover combined with scattered storms will help keep afternoon highs in the upper 80s across our CWA. Later this evening, rain chances will begin to diminish leading to quiet conditions across our forecast area with overnight lows dropping into the mid 60s. With that being said, continued saturated soil conditions along with stable overnight conditions will help heighten widespread fog development heading into the overnight period. Conditions will continued to be evaluated for any potential dense fog advisories as we get closer to early Wednesday morning. /CR/ Wednesday through Monday: With the exception of Wednesday afternoon where there will be low chances of afternoon showers in our south, dry weather is expected through Monday. Our normal lows run in the lower 60s while our normal highs run in the mid 80s. Much of the forecast period will see above normal morning lows and afternoon highs. Come Wednesday morning our CWA will still be on the back side of an upper level trough with a weak center of high pressure to our north. A stalled frontal boundary will be just to the south of our southeast most zones. The surface high will remain in place but the upper level trough will shift east through the day with shortwave ridging aloft moving over our CWA. Model consensus develops a few showers during the heat of the day and spreads the activity into our southern zones. This convection is expected to dissipate by early evening. With the shortwave ridge axis and the surface ridge across our CWA Thursday, temperatures will top out a degree or two warmer and convection will be inhibited. The ridging surface and aloft will change its orientation across our region but remain dominant through Monday. /22/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A mixture of MVFR/IFR and LIFR ceilings is occurring across all TAF sites to start off the TAF period. Ceilings will begin to improve to MVFR status starting a little after 14Z Tuesday as the cloud conditions start to improve. Scattered showers along with a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly for areas along and south of the I-20 corridor starting around 15Z Tuesday. MVFR conditions will continue through 20Z Tuesday before improving to VFR status by 21Z Tuesday. Weather conditions will remain quiet through the evening. Widespread patchy fog will start to occur across central Mississippi staring around 05Z Wednesday causing all TAF sites to drop to a mixture of MVFR/IFR and LIFR ceilings. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 85 68 88 66 / 20 20 10 0 Meridian 86 64 89 64 / 10 10 10 0 Vicksburg 85 68 88 66 / 20 20 10 0 Hattiesburg 86 70 90 69 / 40 30 20 0 Natchez 85 69 88 68 / 30 20 10 0 Greenville 85 64 86 63 / 10 0 0 0 Greenwood 88 65 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ OAJ/22/CR