422
FXUS64 KJAN 170608
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
108 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Today...

The remnant low centered over western TN from Francine continues to
be the meteorological driver for us over the short term: Today the
primary topic of discussion will be a band of rain showers
developing throughout the central portions of the CWA associated
with the remnant lift/flow around the remnants of Francine. This low
has enabled a channel of moisture to feed in from the Gulf and that
will precipitate out over the forecast region today. Chances for
thunder remain low for today, but an embedded thunderstorm or two in
the overall showery system can not be ruled out. Rain chances look
to taper off after sunset today. Leaving us with continued saturated
soil conditions which will feed our potential for overnight/early
morning fog for the rest of the work week.

Tonight through Friday...

Overall the main concern for the period will be the potential for
fog development in the early morning hours each morning for the rest
of the work week. This potential has been heightened due to recent
rains, coupled with stable overnight conditions. Fog potential
tonight is a bit challenging as we should see things shift more
southward and will have to deal with some mid clouds that will limit
radiational cooling. However, conditions Wednesday morning look to
be more ideal across more of the area to support radiational fog. We
will evaluate conditions over the next forecast cycle or two and
refine this potential and overall messaging of fog/dense fog.
Temperatures are forecast to be in a relatively narrow range with
highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s. Expect muggy and mild
afternoons, with muggy and cooler nights.

Saturday through Sunday

The overall synoptic pattern will begin to shift and allow a
moderate amount of drying within the low to mid levels, as dry air
comes in from the Appalachians. This dry air will suppress any
continued fog sufficiently to result in low risks for widespread
dense fog through the remainder of the period. Dew- point
depressions will be quite low though, so expect no relief from
muggy nights. However, with lows bottoming out in the low 60s,
early morning and overnight hours should be markedly more bearable
than the muggy summer nights we`ve had the preceding months.
/OAJ/86/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A mixture of VFR/MVFR and IFR ceilings are starting to occur across
several sites to start off the TAF period. HEZ has drop down to LIFR
ceilings due to fog and low cloud ceilings. VFR/MVFR ceilings will
continue through 07Z Tuesday with patchy fog expected to move into
Central MS from the west starting a little after 08Z Tuesday.
Conditions will continue to drop to MVFR/IFR ceilings at several TAF
sites around this timeframe. Amendments may be necessary if
conditions continue to worsen. Patchy fog will continue through 12Z
Tuesday with conditions dropping down to IFR/LIFR ceilings across
several sites. Scattered showers will be possible around this time
especially for areas along and south of I-20. Conditions should
start to improve a little after 14Z Tuesday with a mixture of
MVFR/IFR ceilings. Conditions will start to improve to VFR status by
21Z Tuesday. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       85  67  88  66 /  40   0   0   0
Meridian      86  64  89  64 /  30   0   0   0
Vicksburg     85  67  88  67 /  30   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   86  69  90  68 /  50   0  10   0
Natchez       85  68  87  68 /  50   0  10   0
Greenville    85  64  87  63 /  10   0   0   0
Greenwood     88  64  88  63 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/LP/CR