310
FXUS64 KJAN 292015
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
315 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Through Thursday: A small convective system has continued to move
east into southwest portions of the forecast area as of early
afternoon. It has been producing some strong wind gusts, but expect
these storms to diminish as they move farther east into more stable
air. Overnight, there is some guidance suggesting redevelopment of
showers along a warm front pushing north across the area, so it
wouldn`t be surprising if we see an uptick in convective rainfall
late tonight and perhaps into the early morning along some west-
east oriented axis (e.g., recent HRRR/ARW2 suggest along the I-20
corridor). As we go through Thursday, a warm, moist, and unstable
environment along a slowly-shifting frontal boundary will support
additional shower/thunderstorm chances during peak heating hours.
As of now, there are no siginals for significant MCVs/perturbations
moving across that might enhance the convective potential and
increase the risk for strong/severe storms. /EC/

Friday through Wednesday: More of a summer-like active weather
pattern is expected around the region through the early parts of
next week. Generally southerly flow in the low levels as surface
high pressure drifts across the eastern CONUS into early next week
will keep moist and unstable air flowing into the Gulf Coast and
Southern Plains regions. Guidance points to two upper-level low
pressure systems slowly moving east from the Plains toward the
Great lakes in that time frame - one passing east of our area
Friday night into Saturday and the other sometime Sunday into the
early part of next week. These and any other minor disturbances
will interact with the moist air mass in place to support diurnal
convection. There could be some better flow at times, with mid-
level speeds around 20-30 kts, while tapering off between waves.
PWAT values will meanwhile rise into the 1.6-2.0 inch range and
support locally heavy downpours. At this time, a highlighted
Marginal Risk for severe storms is out for much of the area on
Friday, but can definitely foresee additional Severe Storm
Outlooks being needed as details come into alignment. Microbursts
producing localized damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy rain will
be a possibility through the middle of next week. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the most part with the exception
of patchy areas early morning fog possible mainly in the HBG/PIB
area. SHRA/TSRA emphasis will be on the late aftn/early evng time
frame, but confidence is low beyond then concerning when there may
be redevelopment. Surface wind will be light and erratic this
afternoon into tonight, becoming mostly southeast Thursday
morning. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  84  67  88 /  40  40  30  30
Meridian      65  83  65  88 /  30  30  20  10
Vicksburg     67  85  68  87 /  40  50  40  40
Hattiesburg   68  89  67  90 /  40  30  20  20
Natchez       66  87  68  87 /  30  50  40  40
Greenville    69  84  69  87 /  40  50  30  40
Greenwood     67  83  67  87 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/NF/EC