077
FXUS64 KJAN 121751
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1251 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A weak frontal boundary has spurred some isolated showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms this morning along and south of the
I-20 corridor. A disturbance is noted on satellite this morning
across east Texas. This disturbance along with diurnal heating
could reinvigorate this activity later this afternoon and carry a
risk for isolated severe storms, thus messaging a marginal risk
for areas along and south of the boundary, roughly the HWY 84 and
HWY 49 corridors./SAS/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Today through Monday night: Multiple rounds of storms; some severe
and with locally heavy rain will affect our CWA through the period.
Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed our CWA
downstream of a closed low spinning just east of the Four Corners
region. Disturbances noted within the southern branch of the jet
stream rounding the based of the closed low with help enhance
convection as deep moisture increases back across our region. Local
radars already showed some light showers moving east along the
Highway 84 corridor as well as across southern Arkansas that will
spread east along our Highway 82 corridor. This activity is expected
to taper off later this morning. Later this afternoon daytime
heating will combine with a more potent shortwave to develop
convection just to our west. Some of this activity may spread into
our southwest during the evening hours with the possibility of
isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail to
quarter size. In addition, a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled
out and locally heavy rainfall will occur with the strongest storms.
Although the severe threat will likely wain with the loss of daytime
heating, rain chances will continue through the night as the closed
low shifts east to the southern Plains. The closed low will continue
to Monday and Monday night becoming centered over the mid
Mississippi river valley by Tuesday morning. This will send a cold
front into our CWA Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will
locally heavy rain will continue to develop along and ahead of the
cold front and move across our region through Monday night. Severe
storms will be possible again Monday especially over the southwest
portions of our CWA. Damaging wind gusts and hail to quarter size
will be the main threats but a few tornadoes will also be possible.
Storm totals of two to four inches with the highest amounts expected
across the Highway 84 corridor, will be possible Today through
Tuesday morning. Depending on how much rainfall is recorded today
and tonight across our south, a Flash Flood Watch may be needed for
our southern zones Monday. /22/

Tuesday through Saturday night...The main upper trough axis will
move across the area on Tuesday and this may kick of some scattered
showers or isolated storms early, but will end from west to east
during the afternoon hours. High pressure and dry conditions return
briefly on Wednesday into Thursday but yet another strong short wave
is on the horizon.

As high pressure shifts east the flow will once again turn around
with increasing moisture Wednesday night into Thursday. A series of
short waves will move across the area on Thursday, with a strong
short wave/cold front moving across the area Thursday night into
Friday. More heavy rainfall looks like the primary risk during this
period, but strong to severe storms will once again be possible. The
short wave/cold front will move east of the area on Friday along
with the bulk of the storms. Isolated to scattered diurnal storms
will continue to be possible on Saturday./15/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR conditions will gradually transition to MVFR/IFR as lower
ceilings move in tonight. -RA and possibly embedded thunderstorms
will be possible tonight and may briefly drop visibilities to
around 4SM. Multiple rounds of storms are likely tomorrow. Winds
will be from the southeast around 5 to 10 mph, while isolated
gusts to 20-25 are possible with any storms, especially for sites
south of I-20./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  80  65  83 /  90  80  50  30
Meridian      62  77  65  86 /  80 100  60  50
Vicksburg     64  83  66  84 /  90  70  50  10
Hattiesburg   65  82  68  88 /  80  90  70  40
Natchez       65  84  65  85 /  90  80  50  10
Greenville    65  78  68  81 /  90  60  50  20
Greenwood     64  77  66  81 /  90  80  50  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/15/SAS20