Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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846 FXUS64 KJAN 150536 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Tonight through Sunday Night... Much like a record on repeat, quiet and dry conditions will continue tonight as global guidance continue to show sfc high pressure ridging and dry northerly flow over the southeast CONUS. Heading into the overnight period, a few high cumulus clouds will begin to move into the forecast area from the north. With this limited cloud cover, radiational cooling will occur across central MS. Because of this, overnight lows will drop into the low 70s across the area. Forecast confidence continues to increase for increasingly hot temperatures heading into Saturday, with temps nearing record highs. A H5 590 dm ridge will be firmly entrenched over the southeastern CONUS through the weekend. Under the high pressure, the dry airmass will help afternoon highs peak into the 96 - 101 degree range areawide with heat indices around 105 degrees. Because of this, no changes have been made to the limited heat graphic for Saturday. Later on Sunday, the sfc high will start to shift east enough to allow moisture to wrap in across the southern areas introducing rain and storm chances. With this increased moisture, northern areas will see temps in the upper 90s and low 100s, especially where drier air is in place and better mixing is likely. Heat indices will remain in the low 100s across central MS, so will continue to message a limited heat threat for Sunday as well. Heading into Sunday night, rain chances will start to drop across southern areas with dry conditions across northern areas. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 70s across our CWA. /CR/ Monday through Friday...for the next work week, the pattern will have shifted to one that is substantially more moist as the region seeing deep layer SE/S flow get established with the subtropical high centered well to the east. Tropical type moisture will move in early Monday and characterized by PWs of 2.3-2.5 inches. Such moisture will support an increase in rain chances with 40-80% roughly from N to S. Also, more moisture and more clouds will help keep temps in check as well, thus it won`t bas hot with lower 90s N to mid 80s S. Similar conditions are expected for Tue, but rain chances are lower and range roughly from 20-40% (N to S). As for the rain chances, activity looks to be mainly in the for of rain showers with only low end potential for thunder. Warm midlevels and moist profiles favor more efficient rain processes than thunder. The GFS actually supports a window for training/backbuilding of precip on Monday. If this signal can hold, will need to watch for flooding potential. Right now we just don`t have the consistency or model agreement to lean on such a solution, but definitely worthy to keep an eye on. For mid-week into Friday, more ridging aloft edges in but more substantial is the increase in the surface ridge/pressures as the high expands westward. This will promote more subsidence and drier air moving E to W and reducing rain chances to less than 10%. Less rain also means a bit warmer temps. /CME/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Quiet conditions will continue tonight and into tomorrow with light variable winds. Winds should pick up later Saturday out of the east around 3 to 5 mph. Some isolated showers are possible Saturday afternoon./SAS/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 97 74 97 74 / 10 0 20 10 Meridian 100 73 98 72 / 10 0 20 20 Vicksburg 97 74 97 74 / 0 0 10 10 Hattiesburg 99 73 95 74 / 10 0 40 20 Natchez 96 73 95 74 / 10 0 20 10 Greenville 98 77 99 75 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 98 76 99 75 / 0 0 10 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ CR/CME/SAS20