Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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231 FXUS64 KJAN 221752 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1252 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 900 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows a storm complex initiating in central Oklahoma along a sharp moisture gradient. Drier air is noted over our area and areas further east. This complex is progged to evolve into an organized MCS and should push across the ArkLaTex and further east into our area this evening. The decaying MCS will offer a window for damaging wind gusts across far western portions of the area, possibly as far east at I-55 before quickly dissipating as it moves away from a reservoir of greater 850 ThetaE. A marginal/slight risk has been highlighted in HWO roughly along and west of the Natchez Trace corridor for a primary threat for damaging wind gusts. Furthermore, this complex should begin to take a southerly track later this evening towards the Natchez area, thus the marginal has been expanded further south./SAS/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 453 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Today through tonight: Today mark`s the beginning of a more active convective weather pattern for western and northern portions of the ArkLaMiss region. Increasing westerlies will suppress the subtropical ridge responsible for the recent warm and dry conditions, and greater storm coverage is expected in association with the frontal boundary located to our northwest. Strong deep layer shear and instability will favor the potential for organized strong to severe storms, and expect associated cold pools should should have some momentum as they accelerate toward the ArkLaMiss later this afternoon and evening. With this said, the threat for severe weather now extends deeper into the forecast area for mainly this afternoon/evening, and this is reflected in the HWO graphic. For the remainder of the forecast area, guidance show significant capping in the drier anticyclonic flow, and this should correlate with a big drop off in convective parameters over central/eastern MS. Any convective systems should diminish quickly later this evening as they attempt to move farther east, and it should be noted that a good bit of guidance draw the convective system on a more southerly trajectory through northeast LA along the instability gradient. In any case, still expect damaging straight- line wind and large hail to be the primary threats. /EC/ Thursday into next Wednesday: Early morning global guidance highlights a 998 mb sfc low developing across the NW CONUS before shifting eastward towards the Four Corners Region through Thursday morning. As the sfc low shifts north towards Canada, broad longwave troughing will continue to dominate the western and central CONUS. Any disturbances that ripple out of this longwave trough will provide the support for diurnal activity to organize and propagate eastward across the forecast area heading into Thursday evening. Because of this, a few modifications were made to the severe HWO graphics for Thursday as forecast confidence has started to increase. The threat for severe storms will continue across the Delta heading into Thursday. The Slight Risk (2 out of 5) has been introduced for southeast Arkansas into northwest MS. The Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) has been extended further south in order to capture areas north of the I-20 corridor with the threat for damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size cannot be ruled out. Given the increasing humidity, warm temperatures, and presence of a nearby frontal boundary, storm chances will continue for the northern areas. Guidance consensus highlights multiple decent waves moving across the forecast area as we head into the weekend which could carry a threat for strong to severe storms. Forecast confidence at this time remains low in regards to timing. We will continue to monitor trends and will provide updates as we get closer to the weekend and model data becomes available. Heading into the next work week, a large scale trough will begin to set up across the eastern CONUS. This trough will help push a cool front and dry air into our CWA with rain chances starting to decrease heading into Wednesday. Before the front arrives, Sunday and Monday look to be the hottest days in the extended period with afternoon highs in the low 90s. There is a possibility that heat indices could reach 105- 110 degrees, which will put many residents under the threat of dangerous heat stress. If widespread rain chances remains low for Sunday and Monday, a heat stress graphic would likely be introduced in the near future. Heat trends will continued to be monitored as we get closer to Sunday. /CR/ .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 A persistent southerly flow pattern will bring another round IFR/LIFR category stratus/fog to the PIB/HBG area during the early morning hours. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and southerly surface wind to prevail for the most part. There may be an increased threat for TSRA in the GLH/GWO area by this afternoon and into the evening, but confidence is a bit too low to include in the TAFs. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon with winds from the south around 10mph. Clouds will increase this afternoon and evening ahead of a storm complex that will push into the area later this evening. These storms will be strongest furthest to the west and GLH will likely be most affected. Ceilings may briefly drop to MVFR during any stronger storms. Storms will taper off generally after midnight and some MVFR ceilings will move in early tomorrow morning. Again, this should stay to the west of I-55. Areas east will remain VFR./SAS/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 70 90 72 91 / 10 10 10 0 Meridian 68 90 70 93 / 0 10 10 10 Vicksburg 71 90 71 92 / 30 10 10 0 Hattiesburg 68 91 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 70 90 71 92 / 20 10 0 0 Greenville 71 87 72 91 / 50 30 30 10 Greenwood 70 88 71 91 / 40 30 30 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ EC/CR/SAS20