295
FXUS64 KJAN 151741
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Today and Tonight:

Early morning hi-res guidance continues to show the remnant low
circulating in the northeast near the northern MS/southern TN
border. This closed low will help increase cloud cover and rain and
storm chances across our CWA with the greatest coverage in the N/NE
half of our forecast area. Thunderstorm potential looks to be a bit
higher today due to deeper instability being generated, but showers
will still dominate. Some of these storms could train across the
northeastern quadrants of the region which could lead to locally
heavy downpours at times. At the moment, HREF guidance is starting
to show a strong QPF signal across portions of N/NE MS later this
afternoon. Because of this, we went ahead and issued a "Limited"
risk for localized flash flooding especially for areas east of I-55.
Rainfall amounts for these areas will be between 1-3 inches. Later
this evening, showers and storms are expected to linger across the
N/NE portions of central MS. HREF guidance is hinting at some fog
potential across the southern portions of the CWA later in the
overnight period. The reason why the HREF is picking up on fog
potential later tonight is due to the lingering showers across
the area. Overnight lows are expected to range in the upper 60s
across the area.

Monday through Tuesday:

No major changes were made to the extended forecast. Rain chances
will continue heading into early Monday morning as global guidance
shows the remnant tropical low being fully absorbed into a upper
ridge pattern running NE-SW from New England to Shreveport. This
will bring a return to a diurnally driven regime fueled by available
sfc/low level moisture with dewpoints climbing in the low 70s.
Heading into early Monday afternoon, diurnally driven showers with
isolated embedded thunderstorms will develop across northeastern
parts of the area around this timeframe with rain coverage expanding
further out to the rest of the region by late afternoon/early
evening. Showers will begin to dissipate by midnight.

Wednesday through Saturday:

Heading into Wednesday, future global guidance does show a rex block
pattern evident of over the east CONUS which should keep our
forecast area dry and help suppress any rain potential. In addition,
temperatures could climb into the upper 80s with a few spots across
the NW Delta reaching in the low 90s. Went ahead and bumped up
temperatures slightly given 850 mb temps (between 14 and 16 deg C)
supportive of a slightly warmer solution. With the ground moist from
leftover rain and stagnant conditions expected, patchy fog is likely
for the next few days. Future guidance is still showing some
sufficient drying of fuels and breezier conditions with mixing which
could introduce a limited fire risk heading into Saturday. Forecast
confidence at this time is still low at this time given the tropical
rain we just had from Tropical Storm Francine and elevated relative
humidity values. RH trends will continued to be monitored as we get
closer to the late week and adjustments will be made if needed. By
Sunday, warm conditions will make a return to the area with slightly
above normal temperatures near 90/70 returning to the area. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Expect MVFR to IFR conditions for most of the area this afternoon
as rain, low stratus, and some fog cover the region. Conditions
should improve some late in the TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       83  70  81  67 /  70  40  80  10
Meridian      82  67  81  65 /  90  70  70  20
Vicksburg     82  69  81  67 /  50  30  70  10
Hattiesburg   86  70  84  68 /  40  40  80  20
Natchez       84  68  83  68 /  20  10  60   0
Greenville    80  68  79  65 /  70  50  70  10
Greenwood     80  68  80  65 /  90  70  60  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/MJH