817
FXUS64 KJAN 240554 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Little adjustment was needed this evening to the going forecast
with only better agreement with near term (1-3 hr)
temperature/dewpoint forecasts tweaked to better mirror
observations. A few mostly high clouds reside across the area,
with a little better coverage north of I-20. Patchy, shallow fog
will be possible tonight, particularly in the Pinebelt south of
the thick cloud cover and within deeper humidity. Lows tonight
fall to around 70 F for most. /86/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Today through Tomorrow Morning...

The forecast for the remainder of the day into tomorrow remains on
track: high pressure/heights continue to dominate and is projected
to keep our weather benign, mostly clear, breezy, yet our
temperatures are expected to trend several degrees warmer than
seasonal. Heat indices are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s F
this afternoon.

Overnight into the early morning hours temperatures are expected to
bottom out in the upper 60s to low 70s, with RH values in the upper
90% it will feel uncomfortably muggy.

Tomorrow through Thursday...

Tomorrow afternoon we will have a front drop down into the forecast
area from the northwest which will assist in bring precipitation to
the state of Mississippi and surrounding region. This front is
expected to enter the region late tomorrow morning from the
northwest, bringing rain chances (20-35%) along the boundary. This
system is expected to slowly amble its way through the region, and
stall out through the central portions of the region; as the
500/700mb low becomes cutoff from supporting upper level dynamics.
Along areas of highest confluence, expect diurnally enhanced
instability to allow for embedded thunderstorms mainly along a NE-SW
corridor bisecting the Jackson area of responsibility. Elsewhere
widespread light rain showers are expected Tuesday, Wednesday, and
Thursday. Consequently our gradient will measurably tighten,
delivering higher wind speeds (10kt northerlies gusting up to
15kts). Unsurprisingly this front will bring with it attendant lower
temperatures, cooling us from the unseasonable highs we`ve had for
the last week or so, with highs in the mid 80s F tomorrow trending
downwards 3-5F daily throughout the period.

Thursday through Monday...

The late week and weekend period will be characterized by an
unorthodox Fujiwhara-like intercyclonic setup. While the low
associated with the aforementioned stalled out frontal boundary
lingers in western TN/central AR, another cyclonic feature,
tropical in nature, will make its way ashore near the Florida
panhandle from the Gulf of Mexico. This will bring moisture to the
area by way of the flow around the Tropical System pinwheeling
around where it will be further drawn in by the stalled out low in
western TN. Altogether this won`t change the surface
meteorological situation all to much from the weather earlier in
the week, however these highest/heaviest rain chances will be
relegated to the eastern periphery of the region. Any shift in the
projected centers of these lows could shift the main rain
corridor east, out of the CWA; or west, through central MS.

Expect rain chances of around 50% throughout the zone for the
remainder of the period with possible embedded thunderstorm
activity, where isolated areas of higher lift coalesce. Wind speeds
look to pick up with this enhanced gradient with southerly winds
gusting into the low 20kts and thunderstorms enhancing these speeds
with precipitable mixing up into the mid 30kts. Highs should be in
the mid 80s F and lows in the low 60S F for the remainder of the
week./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions prevail across the area early this morning. Brief patchy
fog cannot be ruled out closer to daybreak, mainly across south MS
and central LA. Otherwise, isolated showers will be possible
across northeast LA, southeast AR, and northwest MS with a VFR
cloud deck. By the afternoon and continuing into Tuesday evening,
showers and isolated storms will become more numerous across the
area, with brief ceiling and visby reductions possible in heavier
rain. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       91  69  83  65 /  40  60  50  40
Meridian      93  68  83  65 /  20  50  70  60
Vicksburg     89  67  84  64 /  40  40  30  20
Hattiesburg   94  70  89  69 /  10  20  60  60
Natchez       90  68  85  64 /  30  40  40  20
Greenville    86  65  80  61 /  40  20  30  20
Greenwood     88  65  83  62 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

86/OAJ/DL