Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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910 FXUS64 KJAN 300609 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 109 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 852 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Earlier activity continues to diminish as it pushes east out of the forecast area. I have adjusted PoPs to reflect the down trend of precip chances through 1-3am. Hi-res guidance continues to show shower redevelopment from around 3a into early/mid morning. Due to this, PoPs increase, esp across central sections of the area. That pretty much covers things through midday Thursday. /CME/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Through Thursday: A small convective system has continued to move east into southwest portions of the forecast area as of early afternoon. It has been producing some strong wind gusts, but expect these storms to diminish as they move farther east into more stable air. Overnight, there is some guidance suggesting redevelopment of showers along a warm front pushing north across the area, so it wouldn`t be surprising if we see an uptick in convective rainfall late tonight and perhaps into the early morning along some west- east oriented axis (e.g., recent HRRR/ARW2 suggest along the I-20 corridor). As we go through Thursday, a warm, moist, and unstable environment along a slowly- shifting frontal boundary will support additional shower/thunderstorm chances during peak heating hours. As of now, there are no signals for significant MCVs/perturbations moving across that might enhance the convective potential and increase the risk for strong/severe storms. /EC/ Friday through Wednesday: More of a summer-like active weather pattern is expected around the region through the early parts of next week. Generally southerly flow in the low levels as surface high pressure drifts across the eastern CONUS into early next week will keep moist and unstable air flowing into the Gulf Coast and Southern Plains regions. Guidance points to two upper-level low pressure systems slowly moving east from the Plains toward the Great lakes in that time frame - one passing east of our area Friday night into Saturday and the other sometime Sunday into the early part of next week. These and any other minor disturbances will interact with the moist air mass in place to support diurnal convection. There could be some better flow at times, with mid- level speeds around 20-30 kts, while tapering off between waves. PWAT values will meanwhile rise into the 1.6-2.0 inch range and support locally heavy downpours. At this time, a highlighted Marginal Risk for severe storms is out for much of the area on Friday, but can definitely foresee additional Severe Storm Outlooks being needed as details come into alignment. Microbursts producing localized damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy rain will be a possibility through the middle of next week. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 All TAF sites are VFR tonight and expect these conditions to continue through the period. There could be some MVFR ceilings early Thursday morning, but will become VFR after 14-15Z. The winds will generally be light through the period./15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 84 67 88 68 / 40 10 30 20 Meridian 83 65 88 68 / 40 10 10 20 Vicksburg 85 68 87 68 / 40 20 40 40 Hattiesburg 89 67 90 69 / 30 10 20 20 Natchez 87 68 87 68 / 40 20 40 30 Greenville 84 69 87 69 / 30 20 40 50 Greenwood 83 67 87 69 / 30 10 30 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /15