604
FXUS64 KJAN 232353
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
653 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Today through Tomorrow Morning...

The forecast for the remainder of the day into tomorrow remains on
track: high pressure/heights continue to dominate and is projected
to keep our weather benign, mostly clear, breezy, yet our
temperatures are expected to trend several degrees warmer than
seasonal. Heat indices are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s F
this afternoon.

Overnight into the early morning hours temperatures are expected to
bottom out in the upper 60s to low 70s, with RH values in the upper
90% it will feel uncomfortably muggy.

Tomorrow through Thursday...

Tomorrow afternoon we will have a front drop down into the forecast
area from the northwest which will assist in bring precipitation to
the state of Mississippi and surrounding region. This front is
expected to enter the region late tomorrow morning from the
northwest, bringing rain chances (20-35%) along the boundary. This
system is expected to slowly amble its way through the region, and
stall out through the central portions of the region; as the
500/700mb low becomes cutoff from supporting upper level dynamics.
Along areas of highest confluence, expect diurnally enhanced
instability to allow for embedded thunderstorms mainly along a NE-SW
corridor bisecting the Jackson area of responsibility. Elsewhere
widespread light rain showers are expected Tuesday, Wednesday, and
Thursday. Consequently our gradient will measurably tighten,
delivering higher wind speeds (10kt northerlies gusting up to
15kts). Unsurprisingly this front will bring with it attendant lower
temperatures, cooling us from the unseasonable highs we`ve had for
the last week or so, with highs in the mid 80s F tomorrow trending
downwards 3-5F daily throughout the period.

Thursday through Monday...

The late week and weekend period will be characterized by an
unorthodox Fujiwhara-like intercyclonic setup. While the low
associated with the aforementioned stalled out frontal boundary
lingers in western TN/central AK, another cyclonic feature, tropical
in nature, will make its way ashore near the Florida panhandle from
the Gulf of Mexico. This will bring moisture to the area by way of
the flow around the Tropical System pinwheeling around where it will
be further drawn in by the stalled out low in western TN. Altogether
this won`t change the surface meteorological situation all to much
from the weather earlier in the week, however these highest/heavies
rain chances will be relegated to the eastern periphery of the
region. Any shift in the projected centers of these lows could shift
the main rain corridor east, out of the CWA; or west, through
central MS.

Expect rain chances of around 50% throughout the zone for the
remainder of the period with possible embedded thunderstorm
activity, where isolated areas of higher lift coalesce. Wind speeds
look to pick up with this enhanced gradient with southerly winds
gusting into the low 20kts and thunderstorms enhancing these speeds
with precipitable mixing up into the mid 30kts. Highs should be in
the mid 80s F and lows in the low 60S F for the remainder of the
week./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A few southern sites (mainly HBG, PIB, & HEZ) could see some light
patchy fog starting around 09Z Tuesday and will begin to lift
starting a little after 12Z Tuesday which could lead to sub-VFR
conditions across the Pine Belt. Aside from a few high cumulus
clouds, quiet conditions will occur across the entire forecast
period with VFR ceilings prevailing through the TAF period. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  91  69  83 /   0  40  60  50
Meridian      69  93  68  83 /   0  20  50  70
Vicksburg     72  89  67  84 /  10  40  40  30
Hattiesburg   70  94  70  89 /   0  10  20  60
Natchez       71  90  68  85 /   0  30  40  40
Greenville    72  86  65  80 /  40  40  20  30
Greenwood     72  88  65  83 /  20  50  30  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/OAJ/CR