577
FXUS62 KJAX 280750
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
350 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY...
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...Today through tonight...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Relatively similar setup today compared to yesterday with elevated
moisture levels with PWATs near 2 inches...close to 20 percent
above normal. The flow from 1000-500 mb per guidance is west-
southwest about 10 knots. We are already seeing isolated showers
moving through inland northeast FL at 3 AM, fairly unusual that
they are that far inland, but they should tend to dissipate the
farther inland they get. The forecast today again calls for near
60-80 percent chance of rain, with showers and storms most
numerous during the midday time frame, and the best low level
convergence along the eastern coastal counties. This is where
the prevailing west to southwest flow meets up with a slow moving
east coast sea breeze. Have included wording for some storms may
contain gusty winds and heavy rainfall, which should adequately
cover the threat of storms. The highs today will still manage to
hit 90 deg or the lower 90s for most areas. The heat indices are
noted to reach about about 109 in some spots over the eastern
zones. However, the duration of any heat advy criteria looks
short, and if the rain comes in midday, then this may hold back
the chance of reaching advisory criteria.

Tonight, scattered convection is anticipated during the early evening,
but should end fairly early. Overnight, may see some start up again
of showers west of the I-75 corridor area but can`t rule out isolated
showers anywhere over the region given the persistence of PWATs of
2 to 2.1 inches. Given light south-southwest flow and occasional
cloudiness tonight, lows will be muggy in the mid 70s again.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Pattern for deep-layer moisture will continue into Saturday and
Sunday with stronger diurnal convection expected to develop in
conjunction with the afternoon sea breeze, storm outflow boundaries,
and areas of collision. Predominant PWAT levels will range between
2 and 2.25 inches through the period, resulting in increased
chances for storms with heavy localized rainfall. High temperatures
for the weekend will rise into the mid 90s for inland areas and
in the upper 80s and lower 90s for areas along the shoreline.
Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid 70s for
inland areas and in the upper 70s and lower 80s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A cold front will press down from out of the north after the
weekend and then stall in the vicinity of northern Georgia. The
drier air mass along with high pressure ridging will result in
drier conditions starting by midweek. The pattern of building
diurnal convection will carry into this period with convective
developments associated with sea breeze boundaries and areas of
collision becoming more inhibited later in the week as PWAT and
humidity values decrease. Daily high temperatures are expected to
experience a warming trend next week with max temps rising into
the upper 90s by the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions prevail at this time, but some showers getting an
early start with some VCSH around GNV at 06z. Have indicated some
possible MVFR there early this morning and also kept in some MVFR
vsby in mist for VQQ. Otherwise, expect another early start to
showers and storms today, with abundant moisture to produce some
MVFR cigs in the morning before the bigger onset of showers and
storms by late morning and mainly aftn hours. Main concerns with
storms will be gusty winds and occasional low vsby that may be
IFR (though confidence in IFR is lower than MVFR at this time).
Showers and storms will likely end by late aftn. Light and
variable sfc winds will become southwest and then south during
the day at 5-10 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Little overall change in the pattern through early next week with
a ridge axis to the south keeping a south to southwest flow over
the area waters. The airmass remains plenty moist to support
rounds of showers and storms each day, some of which will produce
brief wind gusts in excess of 25-35 kt at times. Winds will be up
to 10-15 kt at the most and seas up to around 3 ft. A weak front
will approach from the north by Tuesday and stall and dissipate by
mid week.


Rip Currents: Though offshore flow is seemingly keeping the risk
low, a southeast wind-sea with surf around 2 ft and onshore flow
briefly in the aftn will just barely maintain a moderate risk of
rip currents today and again Saturday. Should be a south to north
longshore current prevailing, that may be a bit stronger than
would ordinarily be expected. Max threat looks to be in the
morning hours and again after about 3-4 pm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  74  95  75 /  80  40  60  30
SSI  90  77  91  78 /  70  40  70  40
JAX  94  75  93  75 /  80  40  80  30
SGJ  93  75  92  76 /  80  50  80  40
GNV  92  73  92  73 /  80  40  90  30
OCF  92  75  93  75 /  80  40  90  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$