380
FXUS62 KJAX 220520
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
120 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The forecast is generally on track this evening with only minor
tweaks to the rainfall amounts and shower/isolated T`storms that
have mostly conglomerated over the southern St Johns river basin
into Marion county and will see some focus over St Johns county
work up the coast towards St Simons Island after midnight into
the pre dawn hours as the weak tropical low approaches the coast
between Fernandina Beach to St Simons Island. Otherwise winds
will veer around to southerly over NE FL later tonight and turn
east to southeasterly over the SE GA coast as the low shifts
onshore with variable light winds over the SE GA interior. Lows
tonight will be muggy in the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to
around 80 at the coast.

Ongoing light showers Saturday morning along the coast will
give way to scattered to numerous T`storms Saturday afternoon as
the tropical airmass, diurnal instability and Atlantic and Gulf
coast seabreezes work inland and merge inland. Highs Saturday will
rise into the upper 80s along the immediate coast with low 90s
over inland NE FL and isolated mid 90s west of I-75.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Main headline continues to be an area of low pressure spinning
offshore off our coast, known as Invest 92L per the National
Hurricane Center. The system has been close to being able to be
called a tropical depression or storm over the past 12 to 18
hours, as the NHC "hurricane hunters" did find winds up to 35mph
near some bursts of convection this morning. However, the low has
not remained organized enough for any consistent period to be
classified as a tropical cyclone. We recommend referencing
products from the NHC for for further information.

Regardless of classification or "name", the low is steadily moving
to the west-northwest, and is expected to make landfall along the
southeast GA coastline by this evening. Impacts remain as stated
for the past several forecasts: High risk for dangerous rip
currents lasting through at least tonight, high surf at area
beaches, and breezy conditions through the rest of the near term
(especially by the coast). Showers and perhaps a few isolated
t`storms should continue to pinwheel onshore this
afternoon/evening and into tonight, with rain chances cutting off
rather quickly the further inland you go. PWAT values around or
above 2 inches will result in some locally heavy downpours, as
well as the possibility for some gusts up to 40 mph.

Temps will only top off in the mid to upper 80s from about I-95 to
the coast, and into the low 90s further inland. More low level
moisture will result in generally more milder temps overnight,
especially inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Southeasterly- southerly flow will gradually transition to be from
the southwest- south through the weekend as a ridge of high
pressure builds towards the north- northeast of the area. Light
winds over inland locations with breezy winds over the local
waters expected for this weekend. A typical summertime convective
pattern with daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected
this weekend and into the upcoming week. Temperatures are expected
to sit around normal levels over the weekend as the overall flow
will transition to be from the southwest by Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Southwesterly flow will continue through the upcoming week, as an
upper level ridge remains over the region. Latest guidance
suggests a fairly wet pattern for our area with daily bouts of
scattered/numerous showers and t-storms with sea breeze
interactions in a moist environment, with PWATs expected in the
1.5-2.0 range for the local area. With the continued southwesterly
flow, look for daily daytime temperatures to sit in the mid to
upper 90s, with heat indices reaching into the triple digits.
Overnight lows will sit around the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

MVFR ceilings will continue to impact all the TAF sites except GNV
through the morning, with ceilings lifting to VFR levels in the
early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will develop across NE FL
and SE GA this afternoon, PROB30s in place for best guess on
timing of impacts for the TAF sites.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 748 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The 00Z TAF period will begin with a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings
as a weak low moves onshore the coast between JAX and SSI later
this evening by 06Z and weakens as it moves inland thereafter.
Tropical moisture over the area along with low level spin and
coastal convergence will keep VCSH at JAX, CRG, SGJ, and SSI
overnight with tempo restrictions for MVFR ceilings and visibility
from showers, heavy at times closer along the immediate coast at
SGJ through 05Z-06Z, then shift north to SSI after 06Z through
sunrise. Winds from the northeast will become southerly overnight
over the NE Florida TAF sites and easterly to southeasterly at SSI
overnight 5-10 knots along the coast and 3-5 knots inland.

Light southerly flow will allow the Atlantic seabreeze and Gulf
coast seabreezes to move inland on Saturday with southeast winds
behind the Atlantic seabreeze at duval county and coastal TAF
sites and southwesterly behind the Gulf coast seabreeze at GNV.
Steady showers at SSI will become more convective and have PROB30
groups for all sites between 18Z and 24Z for seabreeze induced
thunderstorms that will yield MVFR restrictions for Ceilings and
visibility as storms are aided by strong diurnal heating Saturday
afternoon. Winds will be highest at the coast around 10 knots in
the afternoon and lighter inland 5-8 knots.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024...updated

The Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal risk of excessive
rainfall Saturday, as locally heavy rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches will be possible along the Interstate 95 corridor as Invest
92-L impacts our region with bands of heavy downpours. Rainfall
amounts further inland will likely remain below one inch. Rainfall
will be mostly beneficial, but there will be concerns for
flooding at urban locations where rain bands train repeatedly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  73  95  76 /  70  30  50  10
SSI  87  76  91  79 /  70  60  60  20
JAX  90  73  93  76 /  70  60  60  20
SGJ  90  74  92  76 /  70  70  70  30
GNV  92  73  93  73 /  70  40  70  20
OCF  93  75  93  75 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ470.

&&

$$