824
FXUS62 KJAX 212350
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
750 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Main headline continues to be an area of low pressure spinning
offshore off our coast, known as Invest 92L per the National
Hurricane Center. The system has been close to being able to be
called a tropical depression or storm over the past 12 to 18
hours, as the NHC "hurricane hunters" did find winds up to 35mph
near some bursts of convection this morning. However, the low has
not remained organized enough for any consistent period to be
classified as a tropical cyclone. We recommend referencing
products from the NHC for for further information.

Regardless of classification or "name", the low is steadily moving
to the west-northwest, and is expected to make landfall along the
southeast GA coastline by this evening. Impacts remain as stated
for the past several forecasts: High risk for dangerous rip
currents lasting through at least tonight, high surf at area
beaches, and breezy conditions through the rest of the near term
(especially by the coast). Showers and perhaps a few isolated
t`storms should continue to pinwheel onshore this
afternoon/evening and into tonight, with rain chances cutting off
rather quickly the further inland you go. PWAT values around or
above 2 inches will result in some locally heavy downpours, as
well as the possibility for some gusts up to 40 mph.

Temps will only top off in the mid to upper 80s from about I-95 to
the coast, and into the low 90s further inland. More low level
moisture will result in generally more milder temps overnight,
especially inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Southeasterly- southerly flow will gradually transition to be from
the southwest- south through the weekend as a ridge of high
pressure builds towards the north- northeast of the area. Light
winds over inland locations with breezy winds over the local
waters expected for this weekend. A typical summertime convective
pattern with daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected
this weekend and into the upcoming week. Temperatures are expected
to sit around normal levels over the weekend as the overall flow
will transition to be from the southwest by Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Southwesterly flow will continue through the upcoming week, as an
upper level ridge remains over the region. Latest guidance
suggests a fairly wet pattern for our area with daily bouts of
scattered/numerous showers and t-storms with sea breeze
interactions in a moist environment, with PWATs expected in the
1.5-2.0 range for the local area. With the continued southwesterly
flow, look for daily daytime temperatures to sit in the mid to
upper 90s, with heat indices reaching into the triple digits.
Overnight lows will sit around the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 748 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The 00Z TAF period will begin with a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings
as a weak low moves onshore the coast between JAX and SSI later
this evening by 06Z and weakens as it moves inland thereafter.
Tropical moisture over the area along with low level spin and
coastal convergence will keep VCSH at JAX, CRG, SGJ, and SSI
overnight with tempo restrictions for MVFR ceilings and visibility
from showers, heavy at times closer along the immediate coast at
SGJ through 05Z-06Z, then shift north to SSI after 06Z through
sunrise. Winds from the northeast will become southerly overnight
over the NE Florida TAF sites and easterly to southeasterly at SSI
overnight 5-10 knots along the coast and 3-5 knots inland.

Light southerly flow will allow the Atlantic seabreeze and Gulf
coast seabreezes to move inland on Saturday with southeast winds
behind the Atlantic seabreeze at duval county and coastal TAF
sites and southwesterly behind the Gulf coast seabreeze at GNV.
Steady showers at SSI will become more convective and have PROB30
groups for all sites between 18Z and 24Z for seabreeze induced
thunderstorms that will yield MVFR restrictions for Ceilings and
visibility as storms are aided by strong diurnal heating Saturday
afternoon. Winds will be highest at the coast around 10 knots in
the afternoon and lighter inland 5-8 knots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR and MVFR ceilings expected to persist next 24 hours as weak
low pressure system just offshore northeast FL moves ashore by
tonight. Occasional low vsby expected and have VCSH and TEMPO
groups for the convection. TSRA probabilities expected to rise
and peak by 21z/22z, and then fade. We can`t rule out some brief
IFR chances late tonight and tonight. Expect more scattered TSRA
on Saturday. Gusty northeast winds will continue along the coastal
TAFs and will slowly diminish and back to the north as the low
moves ashore.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

An area of low pressure over offshore waters will continue to move
northwestward towards the southeast  GA coast through tonight.
There is a chance for this low to develop into a tropical
depression prior to moving onshore, but development into a
tropical cyclone is not expected at this time. Strong high
pressure ridging situated from the northeast has resulted in an
increased pressure gradient, which will persist small craft
advisory conditions through at least this evening before low
pressure weakens onshore tonight. High pressure relaxes over
waters this weekend and into the start of next week, with a more
typical summer sea breeze-like pattern returning.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk remains high through this evening
along with high surf due to the continuing onshore winds
associated with a tropical low offshore. Rip current risk lowers
slightly for Saturday as onshore conditions weaken.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024...updated

The Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal risk of excessive
rainfall Saturday, as locally heavy rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches will be possible along the Interstate 95 corridor as Invest
92-L impacts our region with bands of heavy downpours. Rainfall
amounts further inland will likely remain below one inch. Rainfall
will be mostly beneficial, but there will be concerns for
flooding at urban locations where rain bands train repeatedly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  89  73  95 /  20  70  30  50
SSI  77  87  76  91 /  70  70  60  60
JAX  74  90  73  93 /  50  70  60  60
SGJ  75  90  74  92 /  50  70  70  70
GNV  72  92  73  93 /  40  70  40  70
OCF  74  93  75  93 /  40  70  40  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452-
     454-470-472-474.

&&

$$