449
FXUS62 KJAX 261749
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
149 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Showers and inland storms were edging inland/west ahead of the
dominant east coast sea breeze with a few airmass storms popping
across inland NE FL. Coastal locations will be mostly dry into the
evening while the best coverage of afternoon and evening storms
focuses near and west of the I-75 corridor. A few strong to
severe storms are still expected and will capable of localized
wind gusts of 40-60 mph given high DCAPEs and seasonally steep
mid level lapse rates of around -7 degC/km. Locally heavy rainfall
is also a hazard this evening where boundary mergers occur, again
focused across our inland Suwannee River Valley zones where sea
breezes and outflows converge into the early evening as storm
motion weakens. Precipitation will taper off through midnight
with lingering debris clouds as the upper level low near the
central FL Atlantic coast migrates northward toward south GA
through daybreak Friday. This will transition easterly steering
flow to more WSW into Friday.

Low temperatures tonight will trend near average in the upper 60s
to low 70s inland to mid 70s coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Surface high pressure will be centered east southeast of the region
Friday, then move further to the southeast Saturday. The prevailing
low level flow will be from the southwest on Friday, with the Gulf
sea breeze meeting the east coast sea breeze between the highway 301
and I95 corridors in the afternoon. The low level flow will have
more of a component from the west Saturday, which will make the Gulf
sea breeze more dominant, with it meeting the east coast sea breeze
closer to the I95 corridor. The combination of diurnal heating and
these sea breeze interactions will lead convective development each
day, mainly in the afternoon into the evening hours. An upper low
will be overhead of the region this period, and will provide
additional instability. The potential for strong to severe storms
will exist each day, with a little better chance on Friday. The flow
is fairly light, so potential for slow moving storms could lead to
localized flooding, especially in more urbanized areas.
Precipitation will diminish during the overnights.

Temperatures will be near to a little above seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Surface high pressure will largely be centered to the east this
period. The upper pattern will trend toward a troughing pattern over
the southeastern US. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances this
period, due to a combination of diurnal heating, sea breeze
interactions, and upper support. The best chance for this activity
will be during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will be
near seasonal averages through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Shower and thunderstorms will progress inland from coastal
terminals with the east coast sea breeze over the night 1-2 hrs,
with dry but breezy easterly winds at SSI, CRG and SGJ through the
afternoon and early evening. TEMPO for TS was added to VQQ based
on radar trends and may need to include for JAX, and continued
with TEMPO for TS at GNV but chances have trended down from 60% to
40-50% and will monitor radar trends to see if VCTS would suffice.
Convection shifts west of the GNV by 03z with dry conditions
tonight as easterly winds weaken and become near calm inland with
weak SSW winds at coastal terminals due to a land breeze through
12z. Confidence not high enough to include shallow ground fog at
VQQ or GNV at this time given the amount of high clouds expected
across NE FL tomorrow morning, but the NBH is suggesting 15-20%
MVFR probabilities after 07z. After daybreak, brief MVFR ceilings
are possible between 14-16z as diurnal heating creates low
cumulus field. TS potential begins at GNV first under prevailing
SW flow with VCTS at this time around 17z for tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

High pressure will extend across north Florida today then shift
south of the local waters into the weekend. Daily showers and
storms are expected, with more coverage of storms expected over
the local Atlantic waters each afternoon and early evening this
weekend into early next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk through Friday with afternoon ESE
winds and a weak easterly swell. By the weekend, offshore flow
prevails with a low risk expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  92  71  91 /  20  60  40  70
SSI  76  89  75  91 /  10  40  30  60
JAX  72  93  72  93 /  10  60  30  70
SGJ  74  91  74  92 /  10  50  30  70
GNV  69  93  71  93 /  20  70  30  80
OCF  72  92  73  92 /  30  70  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$