635
FXUS62 KJAX 070630
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
230 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. A brief
period of MVFR visibilities will be possible during the predawn
hours at VQQ, but confidence was too low to include in the
overnight TAFs. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop near the northeast FL terminals after 18Z Friday, with
activity mainly being triggered by a pinned Atlantic sea breeze
boundary and the inland moving Gulf coast sea breeze boundary. A
drier air mass will begin to filter into southeast GA during the
afternoon hours, and confidence for thunderstorms was too low to
include in the SSI TAF, where vicinity showers were included
after 19Z as the sea breeze gradually pushes onshore. Confidence
in coverage and intensity was too low to include anything other
than vicinity thunderstorms at the Duval County terminals and GNV.
A PROB30 group for briefly gusty winds and MVFR visibilities
during heavier downpours was included at SGJ after 22Z, with
activity at SGJ and GNV potentially lingering into the early
evening hours. Southwesterly surface winds sustained at 5-10 knots
overnight will shift to westerly towards sunrise, with speeds
increasing to around 10 knots before 15Z. The Atlantic sea breeze
boundary pushing onshore during the early afternoon hours will
shift winds to southeasterly at SGJ and southerly at SSI after
18Z. The Gulf coast sea breeze, which may also trigger at least
isolated convection around GNV, will shift surface winds back to
southwesterly after 20Z.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The near breezy Southwest surface flow at 10-15G20-25 mph will
continue to keep the East Coast sea breeze front pinned close to
the coast through most of the afternoon and still expect very hot
temps into the mid/upper 90s with peak heat indices around 105F
across NE FL and in the 100-105F range across SE GA. Late
afternoon storms should begin to initiate on the East Coast sea
breeze in the 3-6pm time frame along the I-95 corridor from
Jacksonville southward to St. Augustine/Palm Coast and expect
these to become scattered to numerous with isolated strong to
severe storms with gusty winds to 40-60 mph as the main threat,
although expect the usual frequent lightning, small hail and heavy
rainfall potential with this activity as well as it lingers
through sunset and slowly pushes into the Atlantic Coastal waters.

Otherwise some pre-frontal isolated to widely scattered
showers/storms should break out this afternoon and evening across
SE GA and inland NE FL near the Suwannee River Valley and linger
until later in the evening, ending around midnight, although this
activity will not be as intense as the East Coast storms, a few
strong storms with gusty winds of 40-50 mph will be possible.

By the overnight hours, the weakening frontal boundary over the
SE US will continue to drift closer to the local area and should
keep Southwest flow elevated enough to prevent much in the way of
any fog formation, but also the increased SW flow will develop
some shower/storm activity over the NE Gulf after midnight which
may push inland to the Big Bend region, but for now not expecting
this activity to reach the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL at this
time around sunrise. There also could be a few pre-frontal showers
across inland SE GA during the overnight hours, but rainfall
chances with this activity is expected to remain below 20 percent
at this time. Otherwise the SW flow will continue above normal
temps with lows only falling into the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday night)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Friday, a secondary shortwave will move in from the NW along the
base of a southern stream mid level trough over the southern half
of the east coast of the U.S. and bring in drier air and northwest
flow aloft along and behind a surface cold front sinking into SE
GA. Less coverage of showers and T`storms will result north of the
FL/GA state line while more coverage will focus along I-95 and US17
corridors of NE FL as southwest winds 10-15 mph pin the Atlantic
seabreeze near the coast. High temperatures will be only a notch
cooler compared to Thursday with mid 90s for most and low 90s along
the coast.

Saturday, broad ridging aloft will stretch from the NW Gulf coast
east into the FL panhandle and eastern Gulf of Mexico with a weak
surface ridge over the upper TN river valley sliding into the
southern Appalachians. Light northwest winds
will be in place over our area with dry, light northwest flow aloft
and sunny skies that will allow highs to reach the mid 90s south of
Waycross, upper 90s over north central FL with low 90s closer to
the Altamaha river and near 90 degrees along the coast. Lower
dewpoints will spill into the mid/upper 50s in SE GA, but moderate
into the 60s along the FL/GA state line and upper 60s to low 70s
along the coast and over north central FL closer to the stalled
frontal boundary, lowering heat index values closer to the actual
temperature except for more southern areas well south of I-10.

Sunday, the upper ridge will shift eastward from Gulf of Mexico
to the FL peninsula as a broad longwave trough sinks south from
the Great Lakes/New England towards the OH river valley and into
the central Appalachians. This will increase heights locally and
along with westerly winds ahead of a cold front approaching from
the NW will create very hot temperatures in the upper 90s for most
of the area even to the coast with isolated readings around 100
degrees from along US17 to along the I-95 corridor due to the
Atlantic seabreeze confined near the immediate coast. Heat index
values will climb to 100-105 as dewpoints also rise a bit compared
to Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The period will begin with mid to upper level troughing extending
south down the spine of the Appalachians into the southeast coast
and support a cold front entering SE GA by late in the day. As the
mid to upper level trough starts to exit east from the eastern
seaboard on Tuesday, it will remove the parent support for the cold
front and allow it to stall across NE FL through much of next week.

Coverage of showers and Thunderstorms will increase from scattered
coverage Monday (30-50%) to numerous to widespread range (60-80%)
as convergence along the remaining front, merging seabreeze
interactions and high moisture over the region in a west to
SW flow regime all contribute to higher storm chances. This pattern
will increase potential for locally heavy rainfall where storms form,
but still too early for exact amounts. Temperatures will begin
on the hot side Monday in the mid to upper 90s, then cool towards
normal highs in 90-92 degree range inland and the upper 80s at
the coast. Lows will begin above normal in the low to mid 70s
Monday morning and trend down into the upper 60s inland and
the low to mid/70s at the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Breezy southerly winds will develop across the waters ahead of an
approaching cool front set to arrive on Friday. The sea breeze
will be pinned at the beach this afternoon, enhancing thunderstorm
chances in the nearshore waters through the evening. The
aforementioned front will push into the waters Saturday and stall
before dissipating through Sunday. Winds will turn offshore once
again early next week as another cool front approaches from the
north and this front may end up stalling across the local waters
through the middle of next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents in effect for NE FL
beaches with a low risk for SE GA beaches through Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The increasing mixing heights and transport winds will create
high daytime dispersions for most locations away from the coast
Friday as a cold front sinks into the area late in the day. After
the cold front passes just south of the area Saturday, min RH
values will lower to near critical levels as low as 25-30 percent
inland this weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 825 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Record high temperatures at our designated climate sites on
Friday:
   June 7
              -----------
Jacksonville   100/1993
Gainesville    99/1985
Alma, GA       98/1993
Craig Airport  96/1985

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  69  93  68 /  20  10   0   0
SSI  92  74  88  75 /  30  20   0   0
JAX  96  73  95  72 /  40  20  10   0
SGJ  95  74  93  74 /  40  30  10  10
GNV  94  72  97  70 /  40  10  10   0
OCF  95  73  97  70 /  40  10  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$