187
FXUS63 KJKL 210546
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
146 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and mainly dry weather will continue through the weekend.
  Afternoon heat indices will peak near 100 at some locations.

- The upper level high/ridge bringing our heat wave will weaken
  during the weekend and eventually allow a cold front to at least
  approach the area, with the PoPs peaking in the 40 to 60 percent
  range Sunday night ahead of the front.

- Uncertainty still exists concerning the progress of the cold
  front next week and whether or not a substantially drier air
  mass will arrive. For this package, Monday night through Tuesday
  afternoon were left dry, but with precipitation and
  thunderstorm chances returning late Tuesday night and continuing
  through Wednesday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2024

No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 750 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2024

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in place over the area
keeping the winds light and weather dry. Mainly just some cu are
continuing to clear out this evening while the heat of the day is
only slowly abating. Currently, temperatures are running in the
mid to upper 80s most places though a few of the valleys have
fallen to the upper 70s. Meanwhile, dewpoints are holding steady
in the upper 60s to lower 70s - in general. Have updated the
forecast mainly to add in the current obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 345 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2024

Current surface analysis continues to show the surface high that`s
been parked over the eastern CONUS for the last several days. To the
north, a wavering stationary boundary will fire a few thunderstorms
across the Great Lakes but that boundary will remain well to the
north having no impact on the Commonwealth. Otherwise, a widespread
cumulus field has developed with temperatures warming into the upper-
80s to low-90s across eastern Kentucky.

This will persist through the overnight with cumulus field giving
way to mostly clear skies. Overnight, those clear skies will allow
for radiative cooling to occur and the development of river and
sheltered valley fog. Some of this fog will be thick and will
insulate the valleys to mid-60s. Fog will burn off early Friday
morning before another hot day expected. Similar conditions are
expected for Friday with highs in the upper-80s to low-90s. A bump
in moisture due to an approaching 850 feature will help to bring heat
indices back to approaching 100 for the afternoon. The approaching
850 wave would be the current invest 92L that the NHC is looking at
for tropical development. This low is forecast to move toward the
Florida/Georgia coast and inland through the day Friday. The rain
isn`t expected to have an impact on eastern Kentucky but a surge in
moisture and increasing clouds are expected for the region. Those
high clouds will hang around through the afternoon and overnight
Friday into Saturday but the dominate high pressure center we`ve
been under will continue to remain in place.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2024

The extended period will start off hot and dry, as a model supported
ridge of high pressure is expected to be in place across a large
portion of the southeastern and southern CONUS, including the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys, on Saturday. The ridge will gradually shift
eastward over the weekend, as a trough of low pressure aloft moves
our way from the northern Plains. The ridge will only slowly move
away, and should keep the approaching trough at bay until late in
the day Sunday. As the trough moves through, it will push a surface
boundary through the region late Sunday and Sunday night, bringing
long awaited rain back to our area. The front will get hung up a bit
on Monday, and may not exit the area until very late in the day, as
high pressure remains off to our east. Once this initial system
moves through, another weaker ridge of high pressure is forecast to
settle over the region Monday and Tuesday. Subsidence and light
southerly flow associated with the high will keep hot temperatures
in place into mid-week. In fact, it continues to look like we will
have daily high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s in place
through Wednesday. Another low pressure system is tentatively
forecast to move through the region Tuesday night through Thursday,
and will bring renewed rain chances back to eastern Kentucky.
Wednesday still looks to be quite hot, but the passage of another
boundary on Thursday, along with lingering clouds and rain, should
allow slightly cooler temperatures to occur, with highs mainly in
the mid 80s on tap.

Confidence is high that our ongoing heat wave will last through the
middle of the week, with only minimal relief from the two passing
weather systems mentioned earlier. The expected heat and humidity
will be the primary forecast concerns in the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT FRI JUN 21 2024

In general, VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites
through the period. Clearing skies this morning will allow for
areas of valley fog to develop across the region. This will
probably bring KLOZ, KSME, and possibly KSYM and KSJS, to MVFR or
IFR viz from 09Z through 13Z before burning off and all TAF sites
return back to VFR. Winds will be light and variable through the
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC