599
FXUS63 KJKL 161933
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
333 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and somewhat humid weather arrives today and persists
  through the upcoming week. Afternoon heat indices may peak
  around 100 at some locations.

- There is a potential for thunderstorms today, primarily near and
  south of the Hal Rogers Parkway and Hwy-80 corridor. Scattered
  showers and thunderstorms are expected area wide on Monday. The
  greatest probability is in the afternoon and evening hours each
  day.

- Our next chance for rain or thunderstorms won`t be until
  Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 332 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2024

The latest surface analysis has surface high pressure situated over
New England which is also keeping the weather in eastern Kentucky
warm and dry. To the northwest, a surface low is track across the
northern Central Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm front,
associated with the surface low, is extending all the way to the
Georgia shoreline. Locally, mostly clear skies exists across much of
the region with temperatures climbing into mid to upper-80s
across eastern Kentucky with showers and thunderstorms developing
in Tennessee.

Through the day today, the surface low, mentioned above, will eject
into the Upper Great Lakes and while that occurs, the warm front
will lift northeast into the Commonwealth. With warm frontal
passage, a few showers and thunderstorms could develop but mainly
along and south of the Mountain Parkway. SPC mesoanalysis is
forecasting SBCAPE to increase to around 2,000 J/kg with dewpoints
in the mid to upper-60s which is more than enough to support
convective initiation. However, due to the lack of significant
forcing and lack of shear, not expecting much in the way of severe
weather. Daytime highs in the low to mid-90s with heat indices
approaching mid to upper-90s are expected today. Once the front
lifts out the the CWA, toward the overnight, high pressure will
build back into the region. This will clear skies for the overnight
and allow for a ridge-valley split to develop. However, the lowest
valley temperatures are still expected to be in the 60s. Valley fog
will be possible tonight with the expected clearing; also, wherever
precipitation occurs will have a good chance at seeing some fog
development.

High pressure will persist through the remainder of the period with
high temperatures expected to climb back into the low to mid-90s
with heat indices again approaching the 100 degree mark. Also,
persistent moisture in place will allow for afternoon pop-up
thunderstorms through the evening before storms dissipate for the
overnight. Lingering cloud cover may limit the overall ridge-valley
split and fog potential for Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Otherwise, a hot and humid forecast with scattered showers and
thunderstorms is expected for the short-term period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2024

Models continue in agreement for the pattern that will affect our
area during the long term period. Strong upper level high pressure
will start out centered over NC. It is expected to shift north to
near NYC at mid week, with a ridge axis extending southwest over the
central Appalachians. It then shifts back south to the vicinity of
the SC/GA coastal area and slightly weakens by the weekend. There is
some degree of uncertainty by that time with regards to timing an
upper trough and associated cold front crossing through the middle
of the country.

In the lower levels, moisture will have advected back north over our
area Monday and will continue into Monday night and Tuesday, with
dew points primarily in the lower 70s. Convective activity will
diminish Monday evening with loss of heating, with widespread patchy
to areas of fog developing in many low spots even despite some cloud
cover.

The upper level ridge axis will be building into our area by Tuesday
and should bring enough subsidence with a mid level cap developing
to help inhibit thunderstorm development. As we move further into
the week, our low level flow will emanate out of high pressure to
our east. Without sufficient time for the air mass to modify, and
along with deep mixing, this should bring dew points down slightly
into the 60s, further reducing our potential for thunderstorms. It
looks like this scenario lasts through Friday.

The potential for thunderstorms could make a comeback by Saturday.
The GFS QPF shows spotty light amounts on that day, indicative of
sparse convective precip. The ECMWF remains dry. With the upper
level ridge shown to be weakening, from a synoptic viewpoint it
would make sense for at least a small possibility of thunderstorms
to return, and a 20% POP will be used.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2024

VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites and will
prevail through most of the TAF period. A warm front is forecast
to move through the region this afternoon and bring isolated to
scattered thunderstorms but to mainly terminals KSME and KLOZ
through 00Z/Monday. Once showers dissipate, mostly clear skies
will build back into the region. Areas of valley fog may develop
overnight but opted to keep fog mainly at KSME and KLOZ.
Otherwise, light and variable winds will persist through the TAF
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...CMC/HAL
AVIATION...VORST