316
FXUS63 KJKL 021113
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
713 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures and humidity will return to uncomfortable
  summertime levels this week.

- Dry weather lasts through Wednesday, then the potential for
  showers and thunderstorms returns by Thursday, Independence Day,
  and lasts into the weekend. The highest probability of rain is
  on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2024

Have rerun hourly temps for the day using 6 AM obs as mins. Have
also used satellite obs and latest NAM to update the timing of
scattered low clouds moving north into the area this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 429 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2024

A large area of surface high pressure centered over the northeast
CONUS early this morning has been supplying our cool air mass (by
summertime standards), but is weakening and moving away to the
east. Warm air advection on the back side of the departing high
will bring an end to our reprieve from summer heat. Moisture will
also increase. This is already resulting in some clouds in the
5-7K ft level early this morning, mainly over the Cumberland
Basin. The low clouds (mainly scattered) will spread over the
area and persist to some extent through the short term period.
However, the ridging aloft will largely inhibit precip and should
allow enough sunshine for temperatures to jump to what will
become uncomfortable levels when the humidity is considered.
Isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out north of I-64 by
Wednesday evening as a broad northern CONUS trough begins to
suppress the ridge southward and allows a cold front to approach.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2024

An active forecast period is expected as multiple disturbances are
expected to move across the area. At the start of the forecast
period, an upper-level shortwave is forecast to be tracking across
southern Canada with a surface low and associated cold front moving
through the Great Lakes. The aforementioned cold front will be on
the doorstep of the CWA at the start of the forecast period with
increasing showers and storms Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Upper-level flow is forecast to outrun the front thus leaving a
stationary boundary draped across the CWA. To the west, another
shortwave is forecast to develop over the mid-Mississippi Valley
with surface cyclogenesis occurring. Models are in agreement with
this low moving northeast into the Great Lakes while dragging a cold
front through the Commonwealth beginning early Friday morning and
persisting through the day Friday before the front slowly exits by
Saturday afternoon. Between the two fronts moving through the area,
forecast QPF through 00Z Sunday is expected to range from over an
inch in the Bluegrass to two-thirds of an inch near the KY/VA/TN
state line. High pressure builds into the region for Sunday into
Monday before another upper-level shortwave brings another front
through the area beginning Monday afternoon and continue through the
end of the forecast period.

Overall, the period will highlighted with periods of showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will return to more seasonal ranges as
daytime highs in the mid-80s to low-90s and overnight lows ranging
from the upper-50s to upper-60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2024

Some limited valley fog is present in southeast KY early this
morning, but is not affecting any reporting airports.
A bit of valley fog is forecast again tonight in the deepest
valleys, but should not affect TAF sites. Outside of fog, VFR
conditions are expected through the period. Winds will be less
than 10 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...HAL