857
FXUS62 KKEY 141548
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1148 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1139 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024
The 12z sounding at KEY sampled a moist and largely uninhibited
tropospheric profile. Despite KBYX struggling to detecting
anything in the way of shower activity currently over the Florida
Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore coastal waters,
GOES-16 visibile satellite imagery is already detecting bubbling
cumuli along and just north of the Lower Keys. This is transpiring
quite a bit earlier than it did yesterday. Current reasoning
suggests this should morph into a fairly well-defined convective
cloud line by the earlier afternoon hours. Additional developing
activity off the South Florida Mainland may shoot southward in the
late afternoon or evening hours. The inherited forecast called
for around 30% chances of measurable rainfall at island
communities, and this still seems reasonable, given these
scenarios. Yet another hot and humid day also on tap, with heat
indices likely eclipsing 108F at many communities.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1139 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024
A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Florida Keys.
Ponding on the typically favored roadways will peak at the times
of the morning higher high tide in the Lower and Middle Keys, with
little tidal cycle relief in the Upper Keys. Other than these
minor coastal flooding hazards, are no watches, warnings, or
advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters.

From synopsis, light, and at times, variable breezes will continue
through Wednesday across the Florida Keys coastal waters. A
frontal boundary will slowly slide southward and potentially stall
near or just north of the Florida Keys starting late Monday. This
could bring higher rain and thunder chances back to the region,
although the extended forecast is highly uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024
EYW and MTH terminals will experience prevailing VFR conditions
during the 14 Sep 12Z TAFs. Near-surface breezes will remain light
and variable. Stray showers remain possible, but high uncertainty in
shower development and timing means VCSH was left out of the TAFs.
Cloud lines near the terminals remain possible today given the light
breezes and deep layers of moisture measured by the morning 12Z
sounding.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys weather history, in 2023, the daily record high
temperature of 95F was last recorded at Key West International
Airport. This is also tied for the warmest temperature ever recorded
in September. Temperatures records for Key West date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  91  84  91  83 /  30  30  30  30
Marathon  91  83  91  82 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....AJP

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