Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
768 FXUS62 KKEY 161446 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1046 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1046 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 After a strong morning shower moved through Key West near daybreak, KBYX radar shows just a couple tiny showers across the distant Straits of Florida southeast of Woods Wall. There is also a small area of very light stratiform rain across the Bayside waters north of the Middle Keys, though, it is probably not reaching the surface. GOES 16 Visible satellite imagery shows mainly altostratus across much of the Keys with some cumulus/stratocumulus streaming from southeast to southwest across the western Straits of Florida. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Surface high pressure centered over New England continues to build southward this morning. With lower pressure across the Caribbean and Mexico, a tightening pressure gradient has led to east breezes increasing to 10 to 15 knots across the Reef with Island Chain communities observing 10 to 15 mph. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 12z morning sounding showed a small moist layer between 975 mb to 950 mb with dry air above this layer to around 600 mb with a fairly saturated profile from 600 mb up to 250 mb. Wind profile shows mainly east winds from the surface up to 850 mb. PWAT measured was 2.18 inches which is above the 90th percentile of 2.04 inches. Therefore, the only catalysts for showers that can be thought of would be speed convergence or direction convergence so 20% seems appropriate. As a result, no changes to the ongoing forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1046 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution (SCEC) for Increasing winds are headlined across the Florida Keys coastal waters this afternoon, except for eastern Hawk Channel, Florida Bay, and the eastern Straits. The next week looks to bring a prolonged period of breezy conditions to the Keys with the potential for Small Craft Advisories especially across the westernmost waters. Therefore, Small Craft Advisory may be required tonight was headlined for the western Straits. From synopsis, gentle to moderate breezes this afternoon will gradually increase over the next couple of days due to high pressure building in from the north and falling pressures near the Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh breezes will continue through mid week with winds tending stronger especially across our southwestern and western waters. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1046 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period. Skies will gradually clear through the remainder of the day and only a slight chance of rain in the forecast, however, brief instances of MVFR CIGS are possible this morning. Winds will be the challenge of the day, as they are struggling to reach their potential this morning. Over the past hour, they have finally begun to increase, so have elected to keep mention of gusts in both TAFs. Otherwise, winds will remain generally out of the east. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1906, a Category One Hurricane moved slowly to the north-northeast crossing what is now the Seven Mile Bridge. Instrumentation in Key West recorded a minimum pressure of 29.62" and a peak wind of 42 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 82 89 83 / 30 20 20 30 Marathon 88 82 90 82 / 20 20 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest