Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
060 FXUS62 KKEY 220226 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1026 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1026 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Showers have proliferated across the Straits of Florida within the easterly flow, as well as along an outflow boundary from earlier Cuban convection. This shower activity has raced northwestward and a few island communities in the Lower and Middle Keys have received measurable rainfall. There are a few culprits as to why showers have so easily developed this evening. The 00Z sounding sampled an uninhibited environment with ample CAPE and a PW value over 2". We are also in a broad cyclonic regime, which has likely helped spur on the activity. Interestingly enough, there has been little lightning associated with these storms in our forecast area until this past hour. In terms of winds tonight, marine observation platforms are measuring mainly easterly winds around 10 knots along the Reef. This is a few knots lower than this afternoon, and this decrease is in response to the weakening pressure gradient between an expansive high in the western North Atlantic and the remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto. This weakening is being caused by a disruption in the gradient by a well-defined area of low pressure just off the FL/GA coast. For the remainder of the night, winds will remain out of the east and continue to usher in deep tropical moisture. Shower activity is expected to continue through the night, so have opted to maintain 50% rain chances. No changes were necessary to the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1026 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, the interaction between low pressure off the east coast of Florida, high pressure centered north of Bermuda, and broad low pressure in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula will result in gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes over the next few days. Moisture pulled into our area via the low to the west will result in periods of unsettled weather this weekend. High pressure building over the North Atlantic early next week will result in light to gentle southeast to south breezes and a return to near-normal rain and thunder chances. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the next few hours at both island terminals. A TEMPO is in place at EYW for a shower approaching the terminal. More short-term amendments may be necessary later in the TAF period for increasing shower activity, especially tomorrow during the day. Surface winds outside of any convection will be out of the east at 10 to 15 knots. Occasional gusts of 15 to 20 knots are also possible. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1986, an F1 tornado caused $250k in damage between Plantation Key and Tavernier. Tropical Storm Bonnie formed in the central Gulf moving westward on the 23rd, so this tornado may have been caused by the initial depression/circulation. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 89 80 89 / 50 50 50 50 Marathon 80 90 80 90 / 50 50 50 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest