435
FXUS63 KLBF 151127
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
627 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Thunderstorms moving out of the panhandle and into the
   western sandhills this evening and early tonight may produce
   isolated wind damage and large hail.

-  Active weather pattern continues with daily chances for
   thunderstorms into the first part of next week. Some storms
   may produce isolated wind damage, large hail, and locally
   heavy rainfall, especially up along the Hwy 20 corridor Sunday
   and Monday.

-  Very warm conditions persist south of Highway 2 for the next
   couple of days, but cooler temperatures will slowly push
   down from the north through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms which moved across central
and western Nebraska last night will linger this morning east of
Hwy 83 before finally pushing off to the east with increasing
sunshine and dry conditions for this afternoon.

By this evening, a surface low developing in the lee of the
Rockies will move across the High Plains and trigger development
of thunderstorms. The storms will move through the panhandle
this evening and into central Nebraska tonight. Coverage of
storms is not expected to be great and the convective
environment will not be overly conducive to supporting the
storms as they move east. Anticipate steep low level lapse rates
and DCAPE values at or above 1500 J/kg will be conducive to
maintaining outflow mainly with potential for strong/severe wind
gusts as the storms enter from the west and weaken, mainly
north of I-80 and west of Hwy 83 and even moreso from Hwy 61
westward. Any storms look to have dissipated by Midnight with
dry conditions expected through the daybreak Sunday.

The surface low that moves across the High Plains will leave a
weak frontal boundary draped across Nebraska for Sunday with a
dry line extending down to the south that will serve as trigger
for another round of thunderstorms late Sunday/Sunday night,
though some capping aloft will help limit potential for
thunderstorm development. Shear will be abundant in the vicinity
of the boundaries with 0-6km bulk shear values of 40 to 50kt
late in the day, and ensemble mean SBCAPE values at or above
3500J/kg on the warm side of the boundary generally south of
Hwy 2. So any storms that do manage to overcome the cap will
have to be watched closely for rapid development in the very
robust convective environment with potential for large hail,
damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and potentially an
isolated tornado along the dryline south of I-80. Storms
persist into Sunday night before diminishing late.

Highs today will range from the low/mid 90s across the southwest
to upper 80s/around 90 elsewhere. Highs Sunday will be in the
low/mid 90s south of Hwy 2 on the warm side of the boundary,
but only around 80 to the north. Lows will range from the middle
50s northwest to middle 60s/near 70 southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Initially ensemble guidance is in good agreement in building a
strong ridge over the eastern US while a series of upper lows
reinforce a trof over the western US. This will allow the
lingering frontal boundary to sink southward as a cold front
with a gradual cool down to highs around 70 by the middle of
next week. Thereafter, the eastern ridge begins to flatten and
expand westward, bringing another surge of warmth to the High
Plains with a return to readings in the 90s south/80s north by
the latter portion of next week. Overall this will be an active
pattern with persistent southwesterly flow aloft keeping
precipitable water values near the 90th percentile with sluggish
frontal boundaries at the surface providing a focus for
convection. The net result will be potential for showers and
thunderstorms with some locally heavy downpours each day next
week, especially on Monday with potential for some severe
storms. Thereafter, forcing becomes vague with an undefined
severe threat though given the pattern some degree of threat may
eventually become evident in the days ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Low stratus with MVFR/IFR CIGs will persist for central and
north central Nebraska terminals through late this morning,
before exiting the area to the east. Lingering rain showers will
also wane by late this morning, though visibilities in rain
should remain at least low-end VFR. By this afternoon, VFR is
expected to prevail for all area terminals and persist into
tomorrow morning. Winds remain southerly today, at around 10 to
15kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Brown