408
FXUS63 KLBF 062330
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
630 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A slight risk (risk level 2 of 5) of severe weather is
  possible Friday afternoon and evening with large hail up to
  golf ball size and severe winds up to 60 mph as the primary
  threats, however, an isolated tornado could also be possible.

* Active weather continues through early next week, however, the
  severe potential remains low at this time.

* Drier weather with a gradual warming trend is through mid-week
  with highs rising into the 90s by Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The main weather story in the short term will be the potential for
severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. After a quiet
rest of the day today (Thursday) and Friday morning, thunderstorms
will be likely across portions of southwest and north central
Nebraska. Dewpoints will increase across the region through the late
morning and early afternoon providing increased low level moisture
across the region. Moderate instability will also develop across
north central and into central Nebraska by the late afternoon. Ample
instability will exist across the region to support the development
of supercells initially across portions of north central Nebraska.
As these storms track eastward, storms will become more of a
convective line. Current model guidance suggests lapse rates above 7
C/km along with significant CAPE (over 2000 J/kg) and shear above 45
knots. While the main threats will be strong winds and hail up to
golf ball sized, this environment will also be favorable for some
isolated tornadoes especially along the warm front draped across
central Nebraska. At this time, widespread flooding is not expected
to be a concern, although, some localized brief flash flooding could
still occur under some of the more intense thunderstorms.

Timing of these storms will be earlier than what has been observed
in previous systems. Initialization is expected across northern
Nebraska by late morning to early afternoon with the most intense
storms developing by mid to late afternoon (3pm to 5pm CT).
Thunderstorms will continue to push south and east through early
evening before pushing out of the area by late evening. At this
time, the greatest potential to see severe thunderstorms will
generally be along and east of a line from Imperial to Thedford to
O`Neill. While the severe potential comes to an end by late evening,
some lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible through
Friday night. Some small hail, stronger winds up to 50 mph, and
brief heavy rainfall will be possible in these lingering
showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Despite surface high pressure building back into the region on
Saturday, zonal flow will keep some minor precipitation chances
across the area through Saturday. At this time instability remains
weak and therefore the severe risk is low. Additional rain and
thunderstorm chances continue through the rest of the weekend and
into early next week as a series of disturbances move across
Nebraska. Again, severe storms remain low as the best instability
remains to the west and south. Still a stronger storm or two may be
possible with some small hail or brief gusty winds.

Upper level ridging will return for mid-week bringing a return to
drier weather through Wednesday. Warm air advection with 850 mb
temperatures in the 20 to 28 C range will also bring a return to
much warmer temperatures by Wednesday when temperatures will
approach 90 degrees south of I-80. This continual push of warmer air
will even allow for widespread 90 degree or higher temperatures by
next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

An upper level disturbance across ID/NV will begin to affect
wrn/ncntl Nebraska late tonight in the form a warm front
accompanied by isolated to scattered -SHRA/TSRA. This flight
concern is expected across nrn Nebraska, mainly along and north
of highway 20.

The front and convection will remain across ncntl Nebraska
throughout the day Friday mainly along and north of highway 20.

Isolated thunderstorm development is expected across wrn
Nebraska around 21z Friday which should become scattered by
00z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...CDC