851
FXUS63 KLBF 231121
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
621 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*Above normal temperatures return by mid-week

*Mostly dry through next week with only an isolated chance of
precipitation tonight

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

In the short term the main forecast concern is high temperatures
today and precipitation chances tonight. Several models have been
trending warmer with high temperatures this afternoon. Probability
of temperatures exceeding inherited highs was greater than 80% in
most locations, leading to greater confidence in warmer temperatures
this afternoon. Did warm up temps a couple degrees trending towards
the warmer models. Southerly winds and weak WAA will help warm
temperatures, temperatures may need to be adjusted even warmer,
but confidence was not high enough at this time to raise
temperatures more than a couple degrees from unrotated
forecast.

A shortwave trof will move through the area tonight, with an
isolated chance of a shower possible. Forcing will be sufficient,
but drier airmass in place will likely limit development. Did
decrease PoP coverage as confidence is low in precipitation, but
nonetheless have kept some slight PoPs in the forecast for an
outside chance of a shower, anything that does form however,
will have little qpf, thus no "wetting" rain expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

After having the coldest overnight/morning since Spring, the cold
air will push east as a ridge of high pressure begins to build
across the west. Temperatures will build back into the 70s to low
80s by mid-week, with temperatures reaching above normal by
Wednesday. Will keep this weather pattern for much of the long term
forecast period, keeping us limited for precipitation chances this
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions will continue at the KLBF and KVTN terminals the
next 24 hours. Clear skies through mid afternoon. Broken high
cloudiness will move in after 00Z, with a wind shift to the
northwest at KVTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Roberg