Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 242345
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
645 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023



.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Key Messages:

- After spring-like temperatures today, winter returns this weekend
as a system tracks across the area bringing the threat for snow and
colder temperatures.

- Convective potential exists for portions of central and
  southwestern Nebraska which may lead to localized heavy snow in
  a narrow band Saturday night.

- Another system approaches the area Monday bringing a threat for
  wintry precipitation, though exact details remain unclear at
  this time.

- Temperatures moderate through the latter half of next week with
  only a brief lull in precipitation chances before the next
  system approaches the region.

Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and 500-mb analysis shows a shortwave
trough situated across the Texas Panhandle extending south across
much of the Southern Plains. Further north, a weak shortwave was
noted across the Northern Plains with the trough axis bisecting the
forecast area. A stronger and more compact trough of low pressure
was apparent across Washington into Idaho. At the surface, low
pressure is situated across the South Dakota/Nebraska border with
a stationary boundary extending south across the forecast area
into western Kansas. As of 3 PM, temperatures ranged from 45
degrees in O`Neill to 55 degrees in Ogallala. &&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

The aforementioned trough of low pressure will track southeastward
out of Washington and Idaho into Wyoming and Colorado with a surface
cold front pushing south out of the Dakotas tonight. Though model
solutions diverge on the exact track of this system, the
following appears the most plausible with this forecast issuance.

Mid-level frontogenesis will increase across the Nebraska Panhandle
into southwestern Nebraska. Pre-frontal warming will support a
rain/snow mix beginning early Saturday morning with snow becoming
more widespread Saturday evening as the front pushes across the
forecast area. Snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches appears
likely with this system for areas generally west of Highway 83 and
south of I-80. However, the main limiting factor is the
temperature profile across these areas which are keeping snow
ratios low at this time.

The challenge with this forecast is the potential for a narrow
band of convectively enhanced snow developing with this system
late Saturday evening to midnight timeframe. Pin-pointing the
exact location of where this band will set up is difficult given
variability amongst model and ensemble solutions. However, the
HREF suggests that areas with the greatest potential for the
narrow band exists across southwestern into central Nebraska.
Given the convective nature of this system, snowfall rates of 1 to
2 inches per hour are possible. Were these snowfall rates to
occur, visibility restrictions will be easily attainable leading
to travel impacts. Within this narrow band, snow fall
accumulations in excess of 6 inches is possible. This snow will be
a wet, slushy type of snow which leads to the potential that any
melted snow or slush refreezing overnight on Saturday resulting in
slick spots. Those with travel plans Saturday into Sunday across
western Nebraska into southwestern and central Nebraska should
exercise caution and keep up-to date on current weather and road
conditions.

Interestingly, the 00Z run of the SoT (Shift of Tails) is greater
than 0 with pockets of greater than one across the Panhandle
extending east-southeast into southwestern into central Nebraska.
With 50 to 60% agreement, the EC ensemble is suggesting there is a
potential for an anomalous event, coincidentally it is similar to
what occurred a few days ago across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Snowfall will taper off Sunday evening with only a brief window
of time before the next system tracks into the area Sunday night.
This will increased precipitation chances, yet again. Although
model solutions diverge in regards to the evolution of this
system, light snow accumulations of <2" are possible across
southwestern into portions of north central Nebraska. This system
will overspread the area late Sunday evening continuing into early
Monday morning. Given temperatures will remain below freezing,
anticipate the predominate precipitation type to be snowfall.
Though, a rain/snow mix is possible at the onset and back-end of
the systems departure. Will need to continue to monitor this
system for potential impacts to the Monday morning commute.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures begin to moderate with dry
conditions returning as high pressure encompasses the region. Come
Wednesday, temperatures finally return near seasonal for the end of
March. Precipitation chances don`t stay away for long before another
potent system across the western CONUS tracks southward bringing
increased chances for the latter half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

The aforementioned trough of low pressure will track southeastward
out of Washington and Idaho into Wyoming and Colorado with a surface
cold front pushing south out of the Dakotas tonight. Though model
solutions diverge on the exact track of this system, the
following appears the most plausible with this forecast issuance.

Mid-level frontogenesis will increase across the Nebraska Panhandle
into southwestern Nebraska. Pre-frontal warming will support a
rain/snow mix beginning early Saturday morning with snow becoming
more widespread Saturday evening as the front pushes across the
forecast area. Snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches appears
likely with this system for areas generally west of Highway 83 and
south of I-80. However, the main limiting factor is the
temperature profile across these areas which are keeping snow
ratios low at this time.

The challenge with this forecast is the potential for a narrow
band of convectively enhanced snow developing with this system
late Saturday evening to midnight timeframe. Pin-pointing the
exact location of where this band will set up is difficult given
variability amongst model and ensemble solutions. However, the
HREF suggests that areas with the greatest potential for the
narrow band exists across southwestern into central Nebraska.
Given the convective nature of this system, snowfall rates of 1 to
2 inches per hour are possible. Were these snowfall rates to
occur, visibility restrictions will be easily attainable leading
to travel impacts. Within this narrow band, snow fall
accumulations in excess of 6 inches is possible. This snow will be
a wet, slushy type of snow which leads to the potential that any
melted snow or slush refreezing overnight on Saturday resulting in
slick spots. Those with travel plans Saturday into Sunday across
western Nebraska into southwestern and central Nebraska should
exercise caution and keep up-to date on current weather and road
conditions.

Interestingly, the 00Z run of the SoT (Shift of Tails) is greater
than 0 with pockets of greater than one across the Panhandle
extending east-southeast into southwestern into central Nebraska.
With 50 to 60% agreement, the EC ensemble is suggesting there is a
potential for an anomalous event, coincidentally it is similar to
what occurred a few days ago across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Snowfall will taper off Sunday evening with only a brief window
of time before the next system tracks into the area Sunday night.
This will increased precipitation chances, yet again. Although
model solutions diverge in regards to the evolution of this
system, light snow accumulations of <2" are possible across
southwestern into portions of north central Nebraska. This system
will overspread the area late Sunday evening continuing into early
Monday morning. Given temperatures will remain below freezing,
anticipate the predominate precipitation type to be snowfall.
Though, a rain/snow mix is possible at the onset and back-end of
the systems departure. Will need to continue to monitor this
system for potential impacts to the Monday morning commute.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures begin to moderate with dry
conditions returning as high pressure encompasses the region. Come
Wednesday, temperatures finally return near seasonal for the end of
March. Precipitation chances don`t stay away for long before another
potent system across the western CONUS tracks southward bringing
increased chances for the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

The main aviation concern will be the arrival of precipitation
across southwest Nebraska by late Saturday morning. Precipitation
will start off as rain or a rain snow mix across the Panhandle and
slowly spread northeast through the afternoon. At this time, a
rain/snow mix is expected to arrive by late afternoon at KLBF with
the bulk of snowfall occurring after 00Z Sunday. Expect minor
visibility restrictions due to the rain and snow.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Viken
SHORT TERM...Viken
LONG TERM...Viken
AVIATION...Kulik


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