803
FXUS63 KLBF 230901
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
401 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A marginal risk (risk level 1 of 5) of severe weather is possible
  this afternoon and evening across portions of southwest into south
  central Nebraska.

* Hot temperatures return for the beginning of the week with heat
  indices over 100 degrees prompting a heat advisory to be issued
  for portions of southwest and north central Nebraska.

* The next chance for significant thunderstorms arrives
  Wednesday night into Thursday, however, the severe potential
  remains uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

For today...temperatures will continue on their warming trend as
warm air advection pushes in 850mb temperatures in the 25 to 30 C
range. This will allow for surface highs to easily rise into the
upper 80s across north central Nebraska up to the upper 90s across
southwest Nebraska. A few isolated locations may even see triple
digits south of I-80. A weak trough will then push through during
the late afternoon and early evening bringing the potential for
thunderstorm development. These storms will be mainly diurnally
driven, initiating by late afternoon in the peak of the heating and
will quickly fall apart by mid-evening as the sun sets and solar
heating diminishes. Confidence remains low and only a slight chance
PoP (less than 20 percent) has been added to the forecast.

Heading into Monday...the main weather concern will be the
increasing temperatures. A surge of warm air advection will push
surface highs well into the mid 90s to low 100s (warmest across
southwest Nebraska) by Monday afternoon. Confidence is high in
achieving these highs and were actually increased a degree or two
above guidance during this issuance. Latest probabilities suggest
high temperatures of over 100 degrees are in in the 90+ percentile
range across southwest Nebraska, which only increases confidence in
the potential to rise above guidance. Not only will highs soar on
Monday, but these highs combined with increased moisture from recent
rainfall will push heat indices into the 100 to 105 degree range for
portions of southwest and north central Nebraska. Given confidence
in these hot temperatures and after collaboration with neighboring
offices, have put up a heat advisory for Monday afternoon into early
evening. Temperatures should greatly lessen as the sun begins to set
and will quickly drop back into the mid 90s by mid-evening allowing
the heat advisory to expire by that time.

Some isolated precipitation chances are possible on Monday evening
as well, but confidence remains low and should once again be mainly
diurnally driven and swiftly come to an end by late evening. Severe
storms are not anticipated with this Monday evening activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Zonal flow will keep dry weather for the most part across the region
through the middle of the week. Temperatures moderate back into the
mid 80s to upper 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday (a few isolated
locations may reach 100 degrees across extreme southwest Nebraska on
Tuesday). The next major chance of precipitation will then arrive on
Wednesday night into Thursday as a system moves across the central
Plains and a cold front gets dragged across the region on Thursday
night. At this time, confidence still remains low in development as
well as track in the system and therefore severe weather potential
is uncertain. As a result, have only put in some mid-chance PoPs (35
to 45 percent) to account for the uncertainty in these late week
systems. For now, lingering rain will continue into Saturday morning
bringing a wet start to next weekend. Plenty of clouds and rain will
allow temperatures to fall back into the mid 70s to low 80s by
Saturday as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR is generally expected across wrn/ncntl Nebraska overnight,
Sunday and Sunday evening.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along and east
of highway 83 from 20z Sunday through 03z Sunday evening. There
are no other flight concerns.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
Monday for NEZ007-010-027>029-038-059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...CDC