Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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517 FXUS64 KLCH 141459 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 959 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 958 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A few showers continue south of Vermilion Bay, otherwise quiet weather continues. No changes are needed to the forecast this morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through tomorrow night) Issued at 409 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Currently the upper level ridge is centered over parts of northern Mexico and west Texas up to the panhandle. Its influence can be felt over most of the CWA, however we have seen a few isolated showers over the furthest eastern Parishes and marine zones. Saturday morning and afternoon, the ridge will be directly overhead and moving eastward. Little to no showers will be likely, with sunny / clear skies. By Saturday night the ridge will be centered over the Southeastern States with isolated PoPs not out of the question for that night and into Sunday morning. Temperatures will be above climo norms and increasing over the period. Highs today will be in the mid 90s; tomorrows highs will be in the mid to upper 90s. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Dewpoints do not really recover until the long term period. Apparent temperatures will be below advisory criteria, nevertheless we recommend heat sensitive populations to be cautious. Stigger/87 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 409 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Isolated to numerous PoPs are on tap for the entire forecast period in response to an area of low pressure that is expected form and move west across the Gulf from Sunday into late into that work week. NHC highlighted the Bay of Campeche with a 40 percent chance of development. Regardless of development, the moisture from this system will bring with it a chance for locally heavy rainfall and a threat of flooding. There is still some disagreement as to how far north the rich plume of tropical moisture will move. We will still be facing a multiday flood threat over the early to mid week period. PWATs along the coast on Sunday are in the 1.8 to 2.2 inch range. Monday thru Thursday, they are in the 2.2 to 2.5 inch range. Friday, they are greater model differences however the general consensus is that the disturbance will move further west into Mexico, dragging that plume of moisture further away from the CWA. As of this update, the highest QPF totals over the entire long term are in the 6 to 8 inch range along the coast with 2 to 4 further inland. These numbers are subject to change and locally higher amounts will be possible. There is a Slight (lvl 2 of 4) to Marginal Risk (lvl 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on day 3 (Sunday) with Marginal Risk areas on days 4 and 5 (Monday & Tuesday). Keep in mind that the potential for greater and or additional flood threats will exist over this period. Stigger/87 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions to persist past the end of this forecast period. Mostly SKC to FEW skies and winds will be calm to light and variable. Stigger/87 && .MARINE... Light offshore flow will prevail through Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will return by Saturday as Gulf moisture slowly moves northward. Precipitation chances increase significantly Sunday through most of next week as additional moisture from the Southern Gulf of Mexico advances northward. East to southeast winds expected to increase near or above 20 knots, along with increasing seas, beginning Monday, and remain near this level for the remainder of the period. This prolonged east to southeasterly fetch will likely cause increasing tides, with minor coastal flooding possible. Small Craft Advisories will be likely necessary during this time period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 93 69 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 93 74 95 75 / 0 0 10 0 LFT 95 75 97 76 / 0 0 10 0 BPT 95 74 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...87