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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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083 FXUS64 KLCH 282049 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 349 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Aloft, an elongated area of high pressure is centered over Texas, with ridging extending into our area. We also have a ridge centered over the southern Atlantic coast of FL with ridging extending into the central Gulf. Isolated to scattered popup showers ongoing over parts of the CWA. This activity is expected to taper off going into the evening hours. Similar activity can be expected for the rest of the long term. High temperatures and dewpoints are forecast, with MaxTs in the mid to upper 90s and MinTs in the mid to upper 70s. With dewpoints also in the mid to upper 70s, heat indices are forecast to reach the 105 to 110 range. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Heat continues to remain a potential hazard trending into the long range Monday with the center of an upper level ridge axis over SETX and SWLA with very slow modification east through the remainder of the period. Present shower / storms are introducing further moisture into our soils. Considering additional precipitation that may occur during the short range, local RH advection during peak diurnal periods late in the weekend through the mid-week will need to be carefully monitored with regards to the heat indices. Currently, those Heat Indices are progged to build toward 105-110F for many locations during the peak solar heating in the early to mid- afternoons. That said, the surface ridge will remain centered well to the north near the Great Lakes region which will allow minor perturbations to flux across the area. Thus, while heat related headlines are likely into the early work week across the deep south, this pattern will have the caveat of isolated to periodic clustered showers / storms throughout the long range which, if realized, will temporarily create relief from the heat for some locations. As it stands now, the most favorable locations for precipitation to develop with the small perturbations along the southern periphery of the ridge axis lies along Acadiana and coastal locations within the CWA through Wednesday. Hereafter Wednesday, the ridge axis begins to break down and broaden across the SECONUS and Gulf of Mexico. This pattern bring signals of continued isolated precipitation while a new shortwave from the northern Jet organizes / deepens over the Midwest through Thursday night. Locally, temperatures are still progged to remain in the lower 90s along coastal locations with mid 90s trending north toward central portions of Louisiana and interior SETX. Kowalski/30 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Scattered showers and storms have continued to pop up in the vicinity of some of the southern terminals this afternoon. This activity will be tapering this evening. Overnight, some of the models are hinting at patchy fog. Confidence is low at the moment so it was not placed in the TAFs, however it gets a special mention in the afternoon discussion && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Weak high pressure at the surface will ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. This will allow for mainly light onshore flow for the remainder of the week, to go along with mainly low seas. Through the next several days, scattered to occasionally widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 76 95 74 97 / 10 40 10 30 LCH 79 92 78 94 / 10 30 0 30 LFT 79 94 79 95 / 20 40 10 40 BPT 80 94 79 96 / 0 30 0 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-259-260. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...87