Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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953 FXUS64 KLCH 132037 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 337 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Wx map shows weak surface high pressure ridge extending from the Eastern U.S. to the Gulf coast giving our region east northeast winds. Weak stationary frontal boundary continues across the coastal waters with light northeast winds there as well. Dewpoints mainly in the 60s continues across most locations with the exception of the coastal regions where lower 70s prevail. Afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the area. Radar showing no echos across our area, with most of the activity across the coastal waters dissipated. No precipitation is expected tonight as the slightly drier air at the surface and aloft continues to prevails. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s north of I-10, near 70 to lower 70s elsewhere. Afternoon high temperatures in the lower 90s. Overnight lows Thursday night expected in the mid to upper 60s north of I-10, 70 to lower 70s further south. By Friday, the mid to upper level ridge over Mexico & Texas expected to begin building eastward, exhibiting more influence and subsidence over our region. As a result, afternoon high temperatures expected to rise into the lower to mid 90s for Friday afternoon with maximum heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to lower 100s. Overnight lows expected to be slightly higher in the upper 60s/near 70 for Central Louisiana, lower to mid 70s further south. For Saturday, the upper ridge expected to be right overhead, exhibiting the maximum subsidence. Afternoon high temperatures expected to rise into the mid to upper 90s with maximum heat index values ranging from 100 to 105. Little if any chances of precipitation expected inland. Across the coastal waters, Gulf moisture and lift expected to slowly advance northward, with chances of showers and thunderstorms increasing late Saturday night. 08/DML && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) An inverted trough will move west across the gulf this weekend into next week with moisture streaming north into Texas and Louisiana. NHC is monitoring the southern gulf for potential tropical development. Moisture from this disturbance is expected to be pulled northwest around an upper ridge that will move northeast from Georgia to the mid Atlantic. While the main impacts are anticipated to be well removed from the local area at this time (mainly into the southern gulf and into Mexico), an increase in rain chances, higher than normal tides, and breezy conditions may occur across SE TX and LA. The current forecast, albeit highly uncertain, is for roughly 2- 4" of rain along the coastal areas during the extended portion of the forecast then roughly 1 to 2" across the northern half of the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Few to scattered cumulus ~3500-5000 ft expected this afternoon, dissipating this evening and overnight, and again for late Friday morning. VFR expected throughout the period. Light northeast winds around 5-8 kts expected this afternoon, becoming light and variable 3 kts or less after 00z, and northeast 5-8 kts once again after 15z Friday. 08/DML && .MARINE... Light offshore flow will prevail through Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will return by Saturday as Gulf moisture slowly moves northward. Precipitation chances increase significantly Sunday through most of next week as additional moisture from the Southern Gulf of Mexico advances northward. East to southeast winds expected to increase near or above 20 knots, along with increasing seas, beginning Monday, and remain near this level for the remainder of the period. This prolonged east to southeasterly fetch will likely cause increasing tides, with minor coastal flooding possible. Small Craft Advisories will be likely necessary during this time period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 64 94 69 97 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 71 94 74 95 / 0 0 0 10 LFT 70 94 74 96 / 0 10 0 10 BPT 73 94 74 95 / 0 0 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...08