Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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242 FXUS64 KLCH 072059 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 359 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Quiet weather is expected for the duration of the short term with little to no PoPs and mostly sunny/clear skies, however it will be toasty and humid with above normal temperatures and rising dewpoints. The upper level ridge is currently centered over the TX panhandle with ridging extending over the CWA. Over the course of the short term period, the ridge will move directly overhead then over the gulf with near zonal to WNW flow setting up by the end of the period (Sun Night). Closer to the surface we have the area of high pressure centered east of the ArkLaTx. This will elongate itself and drift off to the south and east over the short term. This will allow southerly flow to return to the CWA. While the ridge should suppress most of the activity, we could see some diurnal activity late in the weekend over the waters and in the southern half of the CWA. Otherwise, expect increasing dewpoints to yield warmer heat indices in the 97 to 104 range. Stigger/87 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Morning guidance unveiled what should be a rather unsettled longterm period. A series of digging trofs over the Great Lakes Region will both send southward a weak boundary and erode the longstanding high pressure ridge from the short term period. These two happenings will allow shower and thunderstorm chances to increase starting Monday. As the front nears on Monday, expect a localized increase in shower and thunder storm activity over the area. PWAT values won`t have much time to rebound, so rainfall totals shouldn`t exacerbate flooding like we`ve seen in previous weeks; at least at the start of the longterm period. From Monday, expect the return of the afternoon convective thunderstorm pattern. The weak boundary from early in the longterm period stalls over the coastline acting as the catalyst for daytime storms. High temperatures will continue topping out in the low 90s for much of the longterm period. The only exception being Tuesday when the very slightly "drier" airmass associated with the front moves in. This boundary washes out in coming days, thus the return to low 90s. Heat indices slowly increase through the end of the work week as well, but should remain less than heat advisory criteria. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 High pressure ridge developing over the region has resulted in few to no clouds and light, semi-variable winds. Expect this pattern to prevail through the TAF period. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Light and variable winds will become onshore tonight as surface high pressure north of the region shifts toward the southeastern US. A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will then persist into early next week, becoming somewhat variable as a weak front stalls near the coast. Dry weather is expected to prevail through the weekend, with rain chances increasing late this weekend to early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 68 94 70 92 / 0 0 0 10 LCH 73 92 74 91 / 0 0 0 10 LFT 74 95 75 93 / 0 0 0 20 BPT 74 93 75 92 / 0 0 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11