271
FXUS64 KLCH 312300
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
600 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The latest MCS to traverse the region is presently pushing into
southeast Louisiana with cloud cover becoming scattered in it`s
wake. While this will allow for some late afternoon heating, the
atmosphere has been pretty well worked over and it`s unlikely
there will be enough time for sufficient recovery to support any
significant convective redevelopment this evening.

Winds should become light overnight and with soils again
saturated, patchy light fog will be possible overnight especially
where clearing skies allow for temps to drop a bit more. Any
development should be short lived as another, albeit weaker,
shortwave is progged to swing across the region Saturday. Latest
CAMS guidance, which has admittedly been poor as of late, has been
indicating convective initialization by mid morning and
continuing through late Saturday afternoon. Plenty of tropical
moisture in place across the region will continue to support high
rainfall rates in thunderstorms and the general instability will
support a marginal risk of damaging winds.

For Sunday, the region will be on the southern periphery of
another shortwave, but afternoon convection looks to be more
diurnally driven and should be more scattered in nature compared
to recent events and should dissipate fairly quickly through the
early evening. High rainfall rates will again be possible with any
convection.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The long term begins Monday with the area under a nearly zonal flow
aloft while at the sfc, high pressure over the Atlantic maintains a
moist srly low-level flow. Forecast soundings indicate less capping
and better moisture over the nern zones...and with daytime heating
being the primary driver, we could see a few showers/storms during
the afternoon across mainly cntl LA.

For Tuesday, we begin to see ridging developing aloft in response to
a mid/upper-level low digging swd through the Desert SW into nwrn
Mexico...the resulting capping should keep convection at bay across
our region despite the continued good low-level moisture.

Wednesday currently looks like a repeat performance, although the
passage of a decent shortwave rounding the ridge could lead to an
isolated shower/storm again over our nern zones...for now, POPs have
been capped at just under the slight chance threshold.

Rain chances, albeit small, return to the forecast for Thursday as
the ridge begins breaking down in response to a digging trof over
the ern CONUS...the resultant weak capping allowing for widely
scattered convection to develop.

Temperatures are progged to start rather seasonal with daytime highs
around 90F, although warmer than normal mins are forecast with
readings all through the 70s. A slight warming trend is in the works
with highs in the lower/mid 90s by period`s end...overnight lows
remain rather static.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Convection has cleared the region only leaving some lowered
ceilings near lower Acadiana. Expect variable winds and generally
clearing skies with VFR ceilings through the overnight hours on
subsidence behind the departing disturbance. If skies can clear
and winds remain calm overnight, some patchy ground fog is
possible, thus was mentioned to 5 SM at most terminals.

Otherwise, expect lowered ceilings and another round of showers
and thunderstorms after 13Z and throughout the day.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Onshore flow around 15 knots and seas of 3-4 feet will prevail
this afternoon into Saturday. Another round of thunderstorms will
develop from mid Saturday morning through late afternoon. Onshore
winds will become lighter Saturday evening through the upcoming
week. Just an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible offshore
Sunday with drier conditions expected through the remainder of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  86  69  88 /  40  70  20  50
LCH  73  88  74  87 /  30  70  20  40
LFT  75  89  75  89 /  30  80  20  50
BPT  74  88  75  89 /  40  60  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...11