Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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716 FXUS64 KLCH 281748 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1248 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Wx map shows a weak pressure gradient across the area, with light south winds along and south of the I-10 corridor, calm further north. Aloft, a large mid to upper level ridge continues over Mexico, South Texas, and the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, with a broad trough over the Central U.S. Temperatures this morning remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the mid 70s to near 80 across the area. The persistent smoke from Central America that has spread northward across the Western Gulf of Mexico and our region is keeping lower visibilities in the 2 to 5 mile range this morning, and likely will continue through daybreak, with some slow improvement during the day. For today, expect hot and humid conditions to continue. Afternoon high temperatures expected to reach the lower to mid 90s, with maximum heat index values or apparent temperatures ranging from 100 to 107 degrees. This is just below our heat advisory criteria, thus will not be re-issuing at this time. The other issue will be the increased chances of showers and thunderstorms, around 20-30% over Louisiana, 30-40% over Southeast Texas as a shortwave upper level disturbance within the northwest flow aloft affects the region. Some of these thunderstorms could possibly reach severe limits, with damaging winds the primary weather threat. The Storm Prediction Center has the area from Alexandria to Lake Charles westward in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, and points eastward in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. Most of the activity expected during the afternoon/early evening hours. For tonight through Thursday night, expect the mid to upper level trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. to gradually deepen, eroding the mid to upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Expect the surface high pressure ridge over the Northern Gulf of Mexico to keep moist south to southeast winds over the region. The increased low level moisture, coupled with the periodic disturbances within the northwest flow aloft, expected to bring increased chances of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Expect slightly lower morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and daytime highs in the 80s due to the increased afternoon cloud cover. 08/DML && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) The long term forecast remains fairly consistent with ridging building in the west and a surface high over the Great Lakes Region. We will see a few disturbances track across the region during the second half of the week, while at the same time a surface boundary will meander across the region. This set up will lead to an interesting dynamic where the relative unstable pattern will be competing against the stabilizing effect of the ridge. Each afternoon will have the chance for showers and thunderstorms as daytime heating will be needed to overcome capping and subsidence aloft. During each afternoon PoPs will be in the 30 to 50% range. However, if the ridge is stronger than forecasted or if high clouds limit day time heating rain chances will drop. The high pressure to our east will keep a consistent south flow into the CWA. Dew points will remain stubbornly high in the mid 70s. Temperatures will be a few degrees higher than typical for this time of year with highs in the mid to upper 80s and low in the high 60s to mid 70s. The heat index will peak around 95 each day. 14/Slaughter && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Showers and storms are currently moving through the area with impacts to terminals expected late in the afternoon and this evening. Multiple rounds of activity are expected, with tapering likely overnight. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure ridge across the Northern Gulf of Mexico will result in a persistent, light onshore flow continuing well into the weekend. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today through the end of the week. 08/DML && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 91 70 85 68 / 30 10 60 30 LCH 91 73 85 73 / 50 20 50 40 LFT 94 74 88 75 / 40 30 30 30 BPT 91 73 88 75 / 50 10 60 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...08