Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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994 FXUS64 KLCH 272040 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 340 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 To say its hot and humid outside would be putting it lightly, with observations across the region this afternoon showing truly soupy conditions area-wide. Temperatures currently range from the low to mid 90s, which when combined with dewpoints have resulted in heat indices ranging from around 103-110 in most locations, with a couple of isolated coastal locations seeing heat index values as high as as 119! this afternoon. In addition, visible satellite imagery shows only scattered cumulus area-wide, with no relief from the heat in sight. Although radar is quiet at this time, we are still in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather through the remainder of today/tonight. The ingredients are all there for isolated severe weather however, we likely still need to break that cap that was apparent on this morning`s sounding for anything to get going, which may occur through the next few hours. Tonight into tomorrow, the heat continues, with overnight lows in the mid 70s tonight followed by highs in the low to mid 90s again tomorrow. Only "saving grace" tomorrow will be slightly lower dewpoints in the afternoon that should keep us below heat advisory criteria. In addition, slightly better rain chances are on tap tomorrow, with NBM painting POPs around 15-30% through the afternoon peak heating hours. So still not widespread convection by any means but could definitely see more activity than the last several days which should help to cool some areas down a bit. Heading into Wednesday rain chances increase further area-wide as a weak frontal boundary meanders nearby and an upper level disturbance slides overhead. Combination of these features as well as the ample moisture available should be sufficient in producing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Best rain chances on Wed look to be across SE TX and W LA, with slightly less chances for central/south central LA. Better rain chances/cloud cover should result in much more seasonal temps for Wed, with highs in the mid to upper 80s expected. 17 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 At the beginning of the long term we will have the upper ridge shunted off more to the west with the surface high centered over the Great Lakes Region and a warm frontal boundary ascending north into the Gulf Coast States. Over the long term period, we will see a series of disturbances move across the CONUS, bringing daily rounds of isolated to scattered showers. The surface high over the period will elongate as it moves over the east coast, allowing for nothing but moisture rich southerly flow to move into then just exist for the area. Timing on the disturbances varies from model to model along with MaxTs. Higher rain chances and coverage during the afternoon (max heating) period will limit how warm we actually get. Did not stray from the NBM temperatures which have MaxTs in the upper 80s to right at 90 and MinTs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Dewpoints will be stuck in the 70s, yielding MaxApts around the 90s range. Stigger/87 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Hazy conditions will persist across the entire region throughout the period, causing extended periods of MVFR VIS at all sites. In addition, some patchy fog will be possible through the early morning hours prior to sunrise, mainly for the I-10 terminals. Expect a few very isolated thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon and taper off with sunset. Not all sites will see storms but the location of convection is too difficult to predict, therefore included VCTS at all sites this afternoon. Otherwise, mainly VFR ceilings this afternoon, becoming more MVFR and spots of IFR tonight through tomorrow morning. 17 && .MARINE... Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Surface high pressure ridge across the Northern Gulf of Mexico will result in a persistent, light onshore flow continuing well into the weekend. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday, with daily rain chances remaining in the forecast through the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 94 70 83 / 10 20 20 40 LCH 76 92 74 86 / 0 20 10 40 LFT 75 94 73 88 / 10 20 10 30 BPT 76 91 75 88 / 0 10 10 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045- 055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...17