Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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778 FXUS64 KLCH 311759 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1259 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 955 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A slowly weakening and less organized MCS continues to work through Southeast Texas and into Southwest Louisiana at this hour. While storms have remained sub severe, they are likely producing some brief gusty winds along their leading edges. CAMS guidance continues to perform very poorly with this event, as they have for the last several events. Initializations look poorly rendered giving little confidence to their solutions. That said, the latest iterations depict less development with the previously depicted second MCS that was expected later this evening in the wake of the ongoing event. While this makes some meteorological sense as the atmosphere is likely to be fairly worked over, confidence is very low owing to the poor model guidance. Increased PoPs this morning along and ahead of the advancing MCS, but didn`t make any changes to PoPs through the afternoon or tonight. Also added small craft exercise caution wording to the coastal waters to account for moderate gradient winds expected to develop behind the MCS. Jones && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A very active and unstable weather pattern will continue into Saturday before thunderstorm chances decrease slightly on Sunday. Once again for today, a very moist and unstable air mass will be in place. PWAT values are expected in the 1.8 to 2.1 inch range which is over the 90th percentile of SPC daily climo. Meanwhile, CAPE values are expected to recover during the morning hours back above 2500 j/kg with 0-3km shear over 30 knots. Timing for the convection is tricky as short term guidance has not been handling the evolution of upper level energy and associated meso storm complexes. For today, looking at a MCS coming out of central Texas that will enter the forecast area by mid-morning. This activity should re- intensify as it moves across through the afternoon hours. Parameters are in place that damaging straight line winds will be possible with the thunderstorms as bow segment features are expected. There is also a low end probability of some quick spin up tornadoes embedded with this features as 0-1 helicity values will get over 150 m2s2. SPC has outlined the southeast Texas, and central and southwest Louisiana portions of the forecast area in Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) and a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for the remainder of the forecast area. With the high moisture and PWAT values, high rainfall rates are likely with the storms with 1 to 3 inch per hour probable. Therefore, the forecast area has a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall that may lead to flooding. A second MCS is expected to enter and move across during the late afternoon into early evening hours. However, there is less confidence in this feature, as well as just how strong it will be if it does develop as the air mass may be still worked over from the first. On Saturday, still plenty of moisture around to go along with expected moderate to high instability, and a general weakness aloft. Therefore, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop with daytime heating. Any storm that develops with have a chance to produce downburst wind gusts and heavy rainfall. A Marginal Risk for both severe storms and excessive rainfall will be outlined for the forecast area. On Sunday, upper level ridge will try to build into the forecast area with lower PWAT air and no strong upper level energy noted. Therefore, more seasonal diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity is expected. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Monday continues into an unsettle rainfall pattern with a fairly active subtropical jet upstream along Baja while localized pattern consists of mainly zonal flow with some subsidence ridging in the lower troposphere. Do note, while the movement is rather zonal, there are perturbations of pressure which remain consistent of setting the stage for isolated activity to organize into more scattered / widespread storm clusters. Timing and location are aspects that will remain uncertain until this period comes closer into the range of the CAM guidance. Thus, POPs do not completely diaspora through mos of the long range, but remain lowered to reflect the confidence in timing given this nature of the unsettled wet pattern. While daytime highs climb to the upper 80`s and 90`s with periodic clearing of skies, forecast dewpoints will remain primarily in the mid 70`s which will elevate risk of heat related illnesses for more sensitive populations during prolong periods of physical activity without proper hydration. Meanwhile, as the week progresses, an upstream shortwave stalls along NW Mexico which enhances upper level flow across S`rn Tx and Gulf of Mexico trending through Wednesday morning with another wave developing downstream, closer to home, over the E`rn GOM. As it stand presently, this upper level feature appears to produce much of the precipitable rain east of the the Mississippi, across the SECONUS while shifting over the Florida Peninsula Thursday. Models show the potential in a drying trend late week with departures of temperature and dewpoint growing stronger as a broad upper level ridge develops over the Midwest. Again, should be noted this long range outlook remains unsettled with more variable solution s as the northern jet and the subtropical jet begin to interact over the Midwest late in the upcoming work week. Therefore, while there are some signals, particularly in the national blend of models for some drying trend, consistency has not been demonstrated. Kowalski/30 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A broken MCS continues to progress across the region this afternoon. Precipitation has already come to an end at BPT and will do so at LCH shortly. AEX, LFT and ARA will continue to see visibility reducing heavy rainfall, and gusty winds through 21Z. Guidance has backed off additional development this evening. Areas of fog will be possible overnight where heavy rainfall was observed but confidence in this is too low to explicitly mention at this time. Another round of scattered to widespread showers and storms will develop Saturday morning and continue through the afternoon. Confidence on the timing of the initialization of Saturday`s storms is very low and could occur prior to sunrise. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Surface high pressure will ridge westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico into the coastal waters. This will provide a light to occasionally modest onshore wind flow with mainly light seas through the weekend into early next week. There will be a chance for complexes of thunderstorms to move across the coastal waters this morning into the afternoon, then again this evening. Strong wind gusts and frequent lightning can be expected with these storms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Saturday, before rain chances begin to decrease on Sunday into early next week as an upper level ridge builds in. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 69 85 70 87 / 50 80 30 50 LCH 75 86 75 87 / 40 70 20 50 LFT 75 88 75 89 / 40 70 20 50 BPT 75 88 76 89 / 40 60 10 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...66