737
FXUS64 KLCH 092321
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
621 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

High pressure ridge overtop the region is holding on by a thread,
per latest 500 mb analysis. Digging trof over the Great Lakes
Region is working on this high, and it will continue to do so
overnight. High pressure gets shunted to the east as a cold front
meanders down into Louisiana during daylight hours Monday.

Decreasing heights aloft and ample surface moisture will work with
this boundary, making it the focus of shower and thunderstorm
activity throughout afternoon hours Monday. Not expecting any kind
of organized severe risk with the front moving in.

This front stalls out along the coastline through the remainder of
the short term period, becoming weaker with each day. This will
result in another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon, again, with no organized severe risk.

Somewhat more-dry air is set to arrive in the wake of the "cold"
front Monday and Tuesday. This should result in some slightly
cooler daytime temperatures as well as lower Heat Indices Monday
and Tuesday. HI values to top out in the upper 90s to around 100
F.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

For the entire period, we could see isolated to scattered PoPs, with
the most active weather possible over the weekend depending on a low
level disturbance. Temperatures will be near climatological normals
midweek, with a warmup over the end of the week.

At the very beginning of the period there is a weak trough that will
continue developing as it moves into NETX. This trough will sink
south into Louisiana before taking a dive into the gulf, weakening
even more as it does. At the surface, there will be a weak stalled
boundary sitting right off the coast that will remain there until it
washes out late in the week. As a result of the incoming trough and
boundary along with diurnal processes, we could see isolated showers
and storms fire up during the afternoon and early evening hours. As
the boundary washes out and moves further from the area, weak
ridging will build in. Sunny skies and light northerly winds can be
expected with slightly lower dewpoints.

Model guidance by the end of the week and over the weekend are split
as to what we can expect. A low level disturbance shows up in most
of the models, however the placement and strength of it varies
greatly. If the disturbance moves closer to the central gulf, we
could see scattered to numerous showers and storms across most of
the CWA. If it moves closer to FL / the eastern gulf, we could end
up with a drier and pleasant weekend forecast.

Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Light winds and scattered mid to high clouds can be expected
throughout the overnight period. Another round of patchy fog is
once again expected through the early morning hours prior to
sunrise, with fog potentially affecting all terminals for at least
a brief period. Fog should burn off quickly post-sunrise with high
clouds lingering throughout the day. Tomorrow afternoon, isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
during peak heating hours. All sites will have the potential to
see a stray thundershower or two, but a persistent rainfall is not
anticipated.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A mainly light onshore flow will persist through tonight as high
pressure remains in control over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. On
Monday, a weak surface front is forecast to move into the coastal
waters and stall, with a light northerly flow is expected in its
wake through Tuesday. Thereafter, the front is forecast to wash
out, with southerly flow again expected to linger over the region
through the remainder of the forecast period. Daily isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected starting
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  89  67  87 /  10  40  10  10
LCH  74  91  71  90 /   0  30  10  30
LFT  74  93  73  91 /   0  30  10  40
BPT  75  93  73  92 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...17