010
FXUS64 KLCH 011136
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
636 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A rather quiet and stable night so far with muggy conditions and
some patchy fog.

A very moist and unstable air mass is expected to recover across
the forecast area today with PWAT values around the 90th
percentile of SPC daily climo and with daytime heating, CAPEs
above 2500 j/kg by late morning, increasing further into the
afternoon. Daytime heating should allow scattered storms to
develop by noon time. This activity will likely be enhanced by a
mid level short wave arriving late in the afternoon, especially
along a sea breeze type boundary along the I-10 corridor that
will try to push inland.

With favorable CAPEs and mid level lapse rates, to go along with
downdraft CAPE projected to be near or above 1000 j/kg,
thunderstorms could get rather strong with some severe wet
microburst potential. Therefore, the forecast area will be
outlined in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms.
Also, with the high moisture content, the stronger storms will
have the potential to produce hourly rainfall rates between 1 and
2 inches. Therefore, a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) of
excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding will also be outlined
for the forecast area.

Most of the thunderstorm activity will diminish after sunset with
the loss of daytime heating and the upper level disturbance moves
off to the east.

Will still see a very moist and unstable air mass on Sunday.
However, upper level ridging will begin to build in and this
should help keep thunderstorm activity is check some what, with
mainly diurnally driven summertime type showers and storms.

On Monday, drier conditions are expected as the upper level ridge
builds in further, with only isolated at best diurnally driven
showers and storms during max heating in the afternoon.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The long range continues with an unsettled pattern regarding
precipitation opportunities. While numerical guidance is limited on
signals for organized systems, the rather chaotic upper level
pattern suggests small perturbations may help trigger storms
periodically through the midweek. To start, an upper level ridge
begins to build over the Gulf of Mexico into Tuesday. Temperatures
will warm further into the lower 90`s for most of SETX and SWLA
while sfc winds continue to flow out of the south. However, the
pattern remains progressive with ridging quickly breaking down
during the evening as an upper level trough moves over the southern
tier of the lower 48. Guidance has been fickle about assigning pops
during the late afternoon / evening, however forecast soundings
indicate a suitable environment to support thunderstorms should more
sfc forcing become available. By Wednesday, ridging from the west
begins to return creating a more stable environment for SETX and
SWLA. It should be noted there is a very large well stacked strong
low pressure forecast to develop over the midwest with a stationary
boundary sinking toward the ARKLATEX region. Overall, this northern
stream pattern will have little impact to the local weather.
Hereafter, the unsettled nature of the northern stream interaction
with the subtropical jet come into question with some guidance
indicating the frontal boundary continuing to push toward the Gulf
Coast toward the end of the work week. Additionally, the upper level
pattern across the southern and southwest CONUS continues to remain
rather harum-scarum. That said, weak ridging continues to show up in
the tail of the long range pending the progressive behavior of the
northern stream. Regardless, temperatures will continue to remain
consistently in the upper 80`s to lower 90`s with lowered dewpoints
possible by next weekend.

Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

With light winds, stable conditions, and low level moisture/wet
grounds patchy fog and low clouds have developed. Expect IFR/MVFR
conditions until about 01/15z, when daytime heating and winds
increase to help lift the low clouds.

With a very moist and unstable environment, expect thunderstorms
to begin to develop by late morning and will introduce VCTS by
01/17z at all terminals. An upper level disturbance will approach
this afternoon to help enhance storm activity, and therefore
placed TEMPO groups at all terminals to time when storms will be
at there greatest from roughly around 01/19z until 01/24z.

VFR conditions expected during the evening hours after storms
dissipate or move off to the east.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 416 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Weak high pressure will ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico
and provide mainly light onshore flow for the remainder of the
weekend at around 10 knots, maybe up to 15 knots. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today into the
evening as a very moist and unstable air mass remains in place.
Winds and seas will be higher in and near the storms.

An upper level ridge will begin to build in on Sunday providing
lower chances for showers that will decrease further next week.

High pressure ridging across the northern Gulf and a series of low
pressure systems over the Plains will allow for modest southerly
winds during next week with wind speeds averaging around 15 knots
possibly up to 20 knots, and small craft exercise caution may be
headlined at various times when speeds near 20 knots.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  68  88  71 /  40  30  40   0
LCH  88  73  87  75 /  60  40  50   0
LFT  88  74  89  75 /  60  30  50   0
BPT  89  74  89  76 /  50  20  30   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07