Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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474 FXUS64 KLCH 302054 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 354 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 351 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Little to no change in the overall pattern. The upper ridge is still centered over MX / the Pacific where it will remain over the course of the period. The surface high pressure is off to the northeast of us with winds out of the south and SE supplying plentiful moisture. We will see impulses quickly slide across the region, leading to daily showers and storms. Currently we are seeing isolated showers and storms on radar mostly along a boundary that is bisecting the CWA. Confidence in model guidance is low, however the general consensus is that the first round of storms will move into the CWA this evening before tapering out going into the overnight hours. The lull in activity will be possible from there until the mid Friday morning timeframe. By the afternoon hours, yet another round is expected as a weak surface low moves into the ArkLaTx then exits off to the northeast. The models are split on the placement of an upper level low moving across the Southern Plains on Saturday, however it will provide more rain for the region. Each day of the short term we remain in at least marginal risk for severe storms, with a slight risk area for tomorrow. Damaging winds are the primary threat. Additionally we are in a marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall. Stigger/87 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 351 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 An upper level trof swinging quickly across north Texas and southern Oklahoma will support continued daily scattered thunderstorms Sunday through Sunday evening. The highest PoPs are situated across south central Louisiana in the vicinity of the deepest moisture. Given the daily rainfall expected across the region through the weekend and the prospects for high rainfall rates, a low end flash flood risk will likely exist during this time frame. Convection should be quick to dissipate Sunday night as the upper level support shifts quickly East. Guidance is in fairly good agreement on a persistent upper level ridge over northern Mexico building up the Texas gulf coast and Western Gulf of Mexico putting a lid on the vast majority of convection Monday through Wednesday. That said, with a surface high over the eastern gulf streaming a steady dose of low level tropical air into the region and afternoon highs again climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s, a couple of isolated thunderstorms can`t be completely ruled out so opted to maintain 20 PoPs each afternoon. Outside of that, skies are expected to remain mostly clear with heat indices topping out around 100. Jones && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Very widely isolated showers and storms in the vicinity of SETX and CenLA at the moment with a bit more activity expected to build in this afternoon. There is a fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast however models are hinting at a lull in activity this evening before a round of widespread activity moves in over the early morning to afternoon hours. Stigger/87 && .MARINE... Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Light to moderate onshore flow will continue for the remainder of the period with wave heights in the 2 to 4 foot range. There will be an isolated to scattered chance of daily showers and storms over the coastal waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 70 86 70 85 / 30 70 30 60 LCH 74 86 74 85 / 20 50 20 60 LFT 74 88 75 88 / 40 60 20 50 BPT 75 88 75 87 / 30 40 20 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...87