963
FXUS64 KLCH 160457
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1157 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

All things considered, it has been a rather pleasant evening.
Temperatures in the low 90s have now dropped into the upper 70s
with light east to east-southeast winds. Wind direction is set to
turn to the south overnight ahead of developing low pressure in
north central Texas.

By tomorrow morning, we`ll be deeply entrenched in a moisture flux
regime. Two features acting to funnel moisture directly over east
Texas and southwest Louisiana: high pressure sliding towards
Alabama and low pressure moving into east Texas. Warm front is
already sitting across our coastline, as can be seen from
dewpoints in the upper 60s already nosing into Beaumont and Lake
Charles. This front surges northward bringing about very humid
conditions and an airmass ripe for very efficient rainfall for the
next system moving through tomorrow evening and overnight.

Continue monitoring the forecast cycle through tomorrow morning
along with latest messaging for expecting storm hazards and
timing.

11/Calhoun

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Beautiful today with plenty of sun, warm temps, and TDs in the
60s. That will change as we move into Thursday.

Thursday will see an increase in moisture advecting into the
region as ingredients come into place for another round of
showers/storms. First round develops and tracks across the region
late Thursday afternoon into Friday night. Heavy rain and the
potential for flash flooding is the main concern with an
additional secondary concern for severe weather.

Latest CAMs show iso/sct convection developing late afternoon,
before a QLCS tracks east across the area during the evening.
With the QLCS, winds will be the main threat, but large hail and
an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. HREF 50kt wind
probabilities show a reasonable chance for swaths of wind
damage/gusts with several areas registering upwards of 60kts. This
will need to be watched closely as the QLCS takes shape.

As the QLCS pushes east, there is the possibility some
backbuilding/training occurs across SETX and/or SW/South-central
LA. This is where the highest probability exists for greater than
5" and 8" of rain. In fact, reasonable worst case scenario (90%
Exceedance) from NBM is 6 to 9 inches. While anywhere could see
significant totals, the best chance is in these locations
mentioned earlier falling on already saturated ground and
swollen/flooding water ways.

Thereafter, additional rounds of more progressive line
segments/clusters of storms move across the region overnight into
Friday morning. As of now, the Flood Watch is in effect until 18Z
Friday, but it is possible an extension into Friday evening or
early Saturday morning is needed. There remains uncertainty if
another round forms and how strong/where it sets up. Current
thinking is more of SW/south-central LA into Acadiana seeing the
activity. This would lead to another round of severe weather with
all modes possible and renewed threat for flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Mid level ridging builds into the region this weekend with a
prolonged drying trend into at least early next week. Daytime
highs will generally be in the lower 90s each afternoon with TDs
in the upper 60s and lower 70s, which will push heat indices up a
few degrees.

Some uncertainty then enters the picture by mid week with a
frontal system attempting to dent the ridging a bit. Still plenty
of time to watch how this evolves as we move into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Generally expecting a busy TAF period. Winds are veering towards
the southeast and should set up to prevail this way through much
of the period after 12Z. Breezy to occasionally gusty winds will
lift north a warm front through the day which may bring about
elevated scattered thunderstorms after 18Z for western terminals,
after 21Z near Acadiana.

Late in the period, a single rather robust MCS or several clusters
of smaller MCS segments are expected to cross the area from west
to east. Expecting some continuation of scattered thunder over the
afternoon - primarily at BPT, LCH and AEX - due to trof axis
causing storms to develop in a southwest to northeast manner.
There is low to medium confidence of storm timing after 00Z, with
strongest storms expected to move through the region roughly
around 03 to 09Z (after this period.)

With storms expect MVFR to IFR ceilings and all severe hazards:
rapidly growing updrafts with damaging wind downdrafts (similar to
storm systems we`ve dealt with recently), large hail, tornadoes
and volatile/turbulent winds in and near storms.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday into
Friday as another low pressure system approaches the area. Drier
conditions are expected thereafter through next week along with
light onshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  87  65  85 /   0  40  90  50
LCH  70  84  70  85 /  10  80  70  40
LFT  68  89  73  87 /   0  40  70  50
BPT  70  85  72  86 /  10  80  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for
     LAZ027>033-044-045-141>143-152-241>243.

TX...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for
     TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...11