179
FXUS64 KLCH 191825
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
125 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled pattern will be in place from late Tuesday into the weekend
  as the southern jet stream brings a series of upper level
  disturbances to work with a very moist air mass.

- The showers and thunderstorms that develop will have the
  potential to produce high rain rates and there is a risk of
  heavy rainfall and a risk for flooding into early next week.

- Temperatures will remain on the warm and humid side.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Midday surface analysis shows high pressure extending across the
southeastern US from the Atlantic, while a cold front is draped from
the Great Lakes to near DFW. The pressure gradient between these two
features has again resulted in a somewhat breezy SE to S flow across
the CWA today. Aloft, ridging dominates the east CONUS while
troughing is over the Rockies, providing a W to SW flow overhead
between these two features. A combination of southerly flow at the
surface and southwesterly flow aloft will persist through the next
several days, keeping a steady influx of warm, moist air into the
region. In addition, a series of upper level shortwaves/disturbances
are expected to pass overhead in the SWrly flow beginning tonight
and continuing into the weekend, providing ample support for
convection. Unsurprisingly, this combination of disturbances aloft
and a steady stream of moisture throughout the column will bring
about several days of warm and wet weather that will last through
the end of the forecast period.

Area radar this afternoon shows just a few isolated showers ongoing,
amid otherwise cloudy skies. This trend should continue until later
this evening/tonight, when the first in what is expected to be a
series of MCS`s arrives. CAMs are rather split on how much tonight`s
MCS actually holds together, with the HRRR keeping a strong line of
storms all the way to the coast overnight, while other guidance
shows part of the line tapering out/weakening as it draws closer to
I-10. Regardless, this line will be accompanied by a chance for both
excessive rainfall and severe weather, with damaging winds begin the
main concern. SPC has backed off a bit, now including majority of
the region (excluding lower Acadiana) in a Marginal Risk (previous
SLGT Risk was trimmed back). On the other hand, WPC has bumped
things up a bit, now outlining nearly all of SE TX in a Slight
Risk with the remaining area in a Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall. Both of these risks will begin to ramp up this evening
and continue through the early morning hours tomorrow, before
another lull in convection arrives by sunrise.

Tomorrow through Saturday, a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall
exists area-wide each day as several more rounds of rainfall are
expected. However, like today, periods of dry conditions will occur
between rounds of showers and storms each day. While it won`t be
possible to predict who/where exactly will get rain each day,
guidance is hitting hard on the largest rainfall totals occurring
over SE TX and CENLA, with the lower end totals over Acadiana.
Beyond Saturday, long range guidance shows little change in the
overall pattern, with more upper level shortwaves arriving on
Sun/Mon which will more than likely induce more rounds of showers
and storms through Memorial Day. Temperature wise, very little day
to day changes are expected as showers/cloud cover will keep
highs in the mid 80s each day, while a warm and moist airmass will
hold overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A light to moderate southeast to south flow around 5-15 kts and
light to modest seas around 1-4 feet will persist through the week
and into the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
increase by Wednesday and remain high through the week into the
weekend as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level
disturbances produce several waves of precipitation.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A light to moderate southerly flow will continue through the next
several days bringing in rich amounts of Gulf moisture. Afternoon
Minimum RH values will be around 70 percent or greater each day
through the weekend. High chances for daily showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the week into early next week as
a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances
provide waves of precipitation each day. Some locally heavy rainfall
will be possible.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17