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000
FXUS64 KLCH 221617
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1117 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

.UPDATE...
Storms have moved into south-central Louisiana including the
coastal waters this morning along and ahead of a prefrontal trof
boundary. These storms are moving slowly to the northeast while
the general overall movement is eastward. Also noted was the cold
frontal boundary moving into the central Texas coastal zones while
overall movement is slowing. The front is expected to stall this
afternoon... while the front in Louisiana will push a little
further to the south in Louisiana. Temperatures behind the front
are in the 60s while along coastal Texas and into Louisiana
looking at mid 70s to near 80 outside of rain cooled air. Rainfall
totals at this time generally range 1/2 inch upper wards to one
inch. Isolated locations have seen higher amounts with five to
seven inches around the lakes region in southeast Texas while in
Louisiana the Jennings has received around four to five inches.

Storms continue in south central Louisiana east of Lafayette and
in the coastal waters south of Marsh Island. Elsewhere... light
rains will continue on and off but the over all trend is for rains
ending late today. This system is expected to produce additional
storms through the coming days as the frontal boundary oscillates.
But this much needed rains and this will help to ease the drought
conditions for the region. Current zones are fine attm... no
updates are planned at this time.

&&

K. Kuyper

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 758 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022/

DISCUSSION...

For the 05/22/2022 1200 UTC TAF package.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are moving through the area with heavy rainfall and
lightning at times. Variable gusty winds and IFR conditions will
be possible as storms move through the area. Conditions will
improve later in the morning into the afternoon hours. Low-level
clouds will be expected tomorrow morning and could cause MVFR/IFR
conditions.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 511 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022/

SHORT TERM [Today through Monday Night]...
Broken line of showers and thunderstorms moving through the CWA
currently, with the main threat at the moment being minor flooding
and winds. Some training has occurred in interior SETX,
triggering the issuance of a Flash Flood Warning this morning.
Though convection will come to an end behind the line, light
showers will continue. Thunderstorms will continue throughout the
day ahead and along the frontal boundary as it slowly progress
southeastward through the area before slowing / stalling. Tonight
into tomorrow, activity will quiet down a bit as the front bisects
the area. By tomorrow night, the front will begin to lift back
north through the area providing another round of showers and
thunderstorms.

87

LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...

A warm frontal boundary will lift north Tuesday as a deepening trof
and subsequent surface low pressure center develop across the upper
Midwest. Shortwave pulses along the eastern fringe of the upper
trough will easily tap into deep Gulf moisture to keep elevated rain
and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through Thursday. With
ample cloud cover and rain-cooled air, temperatures will hover below
seasonal norms in the mid to upper 80s.

Rain chances will begin tapering off Thursday when a dry airmass
begins nosing into the southeastern US throughout the day. Any
lingering rain or isolated thunderstorms should come to a close by
Friday afternoon as dry air and high pressure take over.

Beyond Friday, dry conditions and warming temperatures return
beneath clear, sunny skies.

11

MARINE...

Elevated winds are expected to last through the day. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible with the approach and passage of a
cold front. After a brief shift to a more easterly wind direction
behind the boundary, onshore flow is expected to re- develop
Monday as the front lifts back onshore.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  67  85  69 /  70  30  30  20
LCH  86  67  86  70 /  80  30  40  40
LFT  86  69  85  71 /  80  50  60  30
BPT  86  69  87  72 /  80  30  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ470-
     472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$