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000
FXUS64 KLCH 070418
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1118 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...
For 05/07/2021 06Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
As expected, GOES-16 nighttime microphysics continues to show
clear skies across the region. Light and variable winds overnight
pick up out of the E to NE after sunrise. Surface high begins to
slide east of the region through the day Friday, so expect a
gradually increasing southerly component to the wind, primarily at
BPT/LCH further on the periphery of the high. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the TAF period.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 932 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Pleasant evening with dew points largely in the 50s and barely a
cloud in the sky. Surface high pressure will continue to ridge in
from the central Plains overnight tonight. With light to calm
winds and the aforementioned lower dew points, expecting morning
lows around 5 degrees or so below seasonal normal. Looks like the
inherited forecast is well on track, so no grid alterations were
necessitated. With high pressure becoming better centered over the
SE CONUS, another dry and arguably pleasant day expected for
Friday.

50

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021/

SHORT TERM...
High pressure is dominating the weather across the northern gulf
coast this afternoon between a cold front over the north gulf and
another boundary over the plains. The ridge will gradually shift
east through Friday with the flow locally becoming more onshore by
Friday afternoon. This will start a warming and moistening trend
that will last through the weekend.

LONG TERM...
A frontal system will be expected to move into the area Monday and
stall near the coast before eventually moving out of our area on
Thursday. This means that significant cloud cover and chances for
precipitation will occur during this time period. There will be a
chance for isolated severe thunderstorms during this period as
well. The increased moisture will mean nighttime lows will be
warmer (in the mid 60s to low 70s).

The ECMWF and GFS diverge for QPF early in the week (Monday into
Tuesday). The GFS shows the bulk of the precipitation well north
of our area whereas ECMWF is trending southward. Expectations will
be between both models, with precipitation early in the week being
low near the coast. Both models agree Wednesday into Thursday
with more significant precipitation throughout our area.

After the front moves out of the area on Thursday, high pressure
will build into the area and skies will clear out. The reduced
cloud cover will lead to cooler nighttime temperatures again
(upper 50s to low 60s).

55

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  56  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  84  61  85  65 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  81  59  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  84  59  84  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...50