862
FXUS64 KLCH 172003
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
303 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate heat risk is noted through the weekend as a prolonged
  period of above normal hot and humid weather will persist.

- An upper level ridge will keep any significant chance for rain
  out of the forecast into early next week.

- Trends show a cold front moving through next Tuesday late
  night/Wednesday morning that will bring a chance for rain along
  with the potential for cooler nights and less humid days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

High pressure extends from the Atlantic across the northern gulf
coast while a ridge aloft extends from southern Mexico northward
across the gulf. This pattern has been virtually stagnant and will
continue to be in place through the remainder of the weekend and
into early next week.

Warm and humid conditions will continue with temps above climate
averages, but most notably on the morning lows. No convection is
anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Models diverge a bit in the extended, however the message is
similar.

An upper disturbance will move across the plains and into the
Great Lakes Region Monday through Wednesday. This will drive a
cold front south into the northern gulf coast. A modest increase
in rain chances will occur as the front moves through Tuesday and
Wednesday. Surface convergence looks weak at this time and likely
not able to take advantage of the higher moisture content that
will be in place from the weeks of southerly flow.

A somewhat cooler and drier airmass will advect into the region
late in the week, but here is where the models diverge a bit on
the amount of cool down and drying out. The GFS still remains on
the cooler side compared to the ECM. However one thing is
persisting in the models, as the time frame gets closer, the front
is appearing slightly weaker for our region when compared to
earlier runs. The extended forecast remains in line with the NBM
which is slightly cooler than the latest GFS or ECM during late
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Patchy MVFR ceilings will continue into the afternoon, however
prevailing IFR to MVFR ceilings will occur tonight into early
Sunday. Winds will be generally south during the period and gusty
at times this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Surface high pressure will continue to ridge across the northern
Gulf through the remainder of the weekend into early next week.
This will allow a light to occasionally moderate southerly flow to
persist.

An upper level ridge will keep any significant chance for showers
out of the forecast through the weekend.

A cold front is expected to move into the coastal waters early
Wednesday morning that will bring the next chance for showers or
thunderstorms, along with a moderate northerly flow behind it.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  92  71  91 /  10  10   0   0
LCH  75  87  74  86 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  75  87  75  87 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  75  89  76  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05