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000
FXUS64 KLCH 071122
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
622 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

.DISCUSSION...
For the 08/07/20 1200 UTC TAF package.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through Saturday 12Z. Isolated
afternoon storms may develop as successive HRRR and SREF models
show very low coverage of convection along I10 corridor. At this
time, will keep mention of TS out of TAFs. Overall, winds should
remain light and variable.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Radar was noticeably quiet across the inland areas early
this morning with just isolated showers in the northern gulf
south of Atchafalaya Bay. Looking outside...thin to patchy
high clouds could be seen above with temperatures around the
area mostly in the mid to upper 70s. The coolest spot was across
our northeast areas where lower 70s prevailed. Winds were light to
calm.

LCH sounding from last night was a bit drier with precipitable was
around 1.71 compared with yesterday`s 2.18. Most of the drying
occurred aloft but also just above the surface.

GFS model today showed upper level high pressure dome to our west
with some ridging extending east into our area. Therefore...we
should see more subsidence today which bodes well for less
rainfall today across the area. That ties in nicely with the
sounding which also confirms column moisture is lower today.
Daytime heating today will be offset by said subsidence aloft so
we will likely see just a few showers and thunderstorms today
mainly either side of the Sabine Pass and into southeast Texas.
The HRRR model did show best pops for the area mentioned just
above and likely has some seabreeze component being hinted at.
Isolated storms can be expected elsewhere toward the latter half
of the afternoon.

The upper level pattern will be somewhat similar over the weekend
with perhaps a bit of an uptick in southerly flow at the surface.
Pops will tick a just a tad bit higher over the weekend mainly
over the southern half of the area.

Looking into next week...Monday and Tuesday...starts out fairly
normal for this time of year. However...Wednesday through the
rest of the week looks wet and a bit cooler with falling heights
aloft as the Dome of high pressure aloft shifts west as troughing
in the middle part of the country develops.

MARINE...
Light and variable winds this morning will shift southerly this
afternoon and continue into next week as surface high pressure
ridges westward into the northwest gulf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  95  71  95  73 /   0   0  10   0
LCH  93  76  92  76 /  10   0  30   0
LFT  95  75  93  75 /  10   0  20   0
BPT  93  76  91  77 /  20   0  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04