394
FXUS64 KLCH 031757
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1257 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Maximum heat indices top out in the 100 to 105F range. Heat
  advisories may be needed over the Holiday weekend.

- The upper ridge will begin to break down. Low end afternoon
  thunderstorm chances will return to CenLA and the Atchafalaya
  Basin.

- No tropical impacts are expected to the CWA over the next 7
  days.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

As of this afternoon, partly to mostly cloudy and hazy skies
persist across the region, with temperatures generally in the
upper 80s. This cloud cover is helping to slightly mitigate
surface heating, with daytime highs expected to peak in the lower
to mid 90s. A few isolated, diurnally driven showers will be
possible today, particularly along the sea breeze and in
association with a weak disturbance moving eastward across Texas.

Heading into Friday and the early portion of the weekend, the
upper ridge will continue to gradually weaken. Combined with the
persistently moist airmass in place, this will support a slightly
noticeable uptick in convection, especially during the afternoon
and early evening hours.

Temperatures will remain fairly steady through the short term
period. Increased cloud cover may limit some locations to the
upper 80s, but most areas will still top out in the lower to mid
90s. Overnight lows will offer little relief, remaining in the mid
70s. While forecast temperatures and heat indices are expected to
remain below Heat Advisory thresholds, the prolonged heat and
humidity combined with outdoor events associated with the holiday
weekend warrant continued caution for heat sensitive groups.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A broad weakness in the upper levels will persist over the region
into the extended period, supporting continued daily chances for
scattered, mainly diurnal convection. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly above seasonal averages, generally in the low to
mid 90s. By the latter half of the forecast period, guidance
continues to suggest the reestablishment of an upper ridge, which
may result in a gradual warming trend and a reduction in
convective coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period. Expect SCT to BKN
high clouds streaming overhead, with limited coverage of showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon. Any convection will diminish
after sunset, yielding a quiet overnight period. Patchy fog may
develop late tonight across portions of SETX and CenLA, though
impacts are expected to be minimal. A similar pattern is
anticipated tomorrow, with slightly increased convective potential
as the upper ridge weakens.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

High pressure area situated over the northern Gulf, while weak and
meandering at times, will result in light, variable winds and low
seas through the start of next week. Upper level weakness then
moves overhead in line with expansive surface high situated over
the eastern seaboard. This will bring about consistent onshore
flow beginning in the early to mid next work week. Daily scattered
showers to return to the forecast this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Scattered diurnal rain chances will return to the forecast this
weekend as ridging breaks down. Afternoon temperatures will remain
near to slightly above climatological normals, with minimum
relative humidity values generally ranging from 40 to 60 percent.
No fire weather concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  92  73  96 /  20  30  10  20
LCH  77  90  75  94 /  10  30  10  30
LFT  77  90  75  93 /  20  40  10  40
BPT  75  91  75  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87