272
FXUS64 KLCH 021130
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
630 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Rather busy night as short wave moving across along with a speed
max has created some upper level divergence to keep going and
enhance thunderstorm activity, mainly over south central Louisiana
and coastal waters, with radar signatures suggesting very large
hail and damaging microburst winds.

Current activity is expected to diminish for the most part by
sunrise, although tail end of short wave energy may keep shower
activity along the Atchafalaya Basin.

Only minor height rises noted over the forecast area, so upper
level ridge will likely not build enough into the forecast area
today to preclude shower and thunderstorm activity. Therefore,
expect daytime heating to initiate showers and thunderstorms once
air mass recovers by late morning/noon time range.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase through the
afternoon with an approach of another short wave, along with
interactions from numerous mesoscale boundaries.

Once again, a very moist and unstable air mass will be in place,
PWAT values will be in the 1.75 to 2 inch range, forecast CAPES
between 3000 and 4000 j/kg with Downdraft CAPE between 1000 and
1500 j/kg, to go along with favorable mid level lapse rates.
Therefore, storms that develop will have the potential to produce
microburst damaging winds and large hail, and also high rainfall
rates that may lead to flash flooding, especially with slow moving
cell mergers and possible training along surface boundaries. As of
now, a Marginal Risk for both severe storms and excessive rainfall
has been outlined for the forecast area.

On Monday, the upper level ridge is expected to start to build
into the forecast area. However, still think there will be enough
instability and high moisture around to get at least isolated
diurnal activity going. There is also another disturbance seen in
the west-northwest flow that may reach the forecast area by late
afternoon, although guidance does not have a good handle on it.

By Tuesday, indications are that the upper level ridge will build
in allow for a decrease in shower activity.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

An upper level cutoff trough will center over Alabama by Wednesday
morning. Locally, temperatures will still remain around
climatological norms near 90F while southerly flow continues across
SETX / SWLA. Broad ridging extending across the western Atlantic
into the central Gulf of Mexico will advect moisture into the
Mississippi Valley, however, signals for widespread precipitation
aren`t showing up due to a lack of forcing working it`s way south to
the coast. A very strong vertically stacked upper level low will
briefly stall north of Michigan, however, much of the guidance keeps
the precipitation north and east of the area. Additionally, forecast
soundings indicate the presence of the low level ridge creating
enough of stable layer to prevent organized convection. Thursday,
there is some indication that stable layer will decrease, thus some
isolated POPs return again.

The remainder of the long range continues to contain elements of an
unsettled behavior with respect to the unorganized upper air
pattern. Friday, the boundary to the north will further sink south
across the region, however, guidance does not populate much
precipitation given the stronger divergence aloft remains NE of LA.
While the onset of next weekend does not favor any significant
precipitation, confidence in the weekend staying rain free is not
high.

Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Mainly VFR to MVFR from ceilings to start off the period. Expect
thunderstorms to redevelop with daytime heating and therefore will
have VCTS at all terminals starting between 02/16z and 02/18z.
Convection is expected to increase in areal coverage and intensity
during the afternoon hours and have tried to time out where
convection will be its most likely at terminals through about
03/00z.

Mainly VFR conditions in the evening as conditions become stable
with the potential for low clouds to develop again during the
overnight.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 444 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Weak high pressure will ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico
and provide mainly light onshore flow for today with south to
southeast winds around 10 to 15 knots. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected today into the evening as a
very moist and unstable air mass remains in place. Winds and seas
will be higher in and near the storms.

An upper level ridge will begin to build in on Monday providing
lower chances for showers that will decrease further next week.

High pressure ridging across the northern Gulf and a series of low
pressure systems over the Plains will allow for modest southerly
winds during next week with wind speeds averaging around 15 knots
possibly up to 20 knots, and small craft exercise caution may be
headlined at various times when speeds near 20 knots.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  70  90  72 /  50  20  20   0
LCH  88  75  88  76 /  50  20  20   0
LFT  88  75  90  76 /  60  20  20   0
BPT  89  75  90  76 /  60  10  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07