Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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373 FXUS64 KLCH 260440 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1140 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Surface analysis shows a cold front across N LA into E TX. South of the boundary, temperatures ranged from around 80 across our northern zones to around 90 across Acadiana, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. KLCH radar shows a band of scattered showers and isolated storms from near New Iberia southwest across the nearshore waters and west toward High Island. Further north, a few isolated small showers were developing across E TX into W LA, closer to the vicinity of the front. Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows a sharply amplified pattern over the CONUS, with a deep trough and embedded closed low over the mid MS Valley and a large ridge over the Rockies. Hurricane Helene features prominently as well, entering the SE Gulf of Mexico. The key messages for the upcoming forecast period will be the arrival of the cold front tonight, and this will herald a period of dry and seasonable conditions for the next several days. The front will also usher in some strong and gusty offshore winds for the coastal waters from late tonight into Thursday, and Small Craft Advisories will be in effect. Meanwhile, Hurricane Helene is expected to continue strengthening as it moves over the eastern Gulf, and is forecast to reach major hurricane status prior to making landfall near Apalachee Bay FL. 24 && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A few lingering showers will be possible through tonight as the cold front sags southward off the coast. Moisture remains sufficient south of the front, and modest low level forcing will support some isolated to possibly scattered showers late this afternoon into this evening, with coverage diminishing overnight. The passage of the front will bring drier air into the region, with dry air advection augmented by pronounced northerly flow on the western side of Helene on Thursday. Dry conditions are then expected to persist into Friday and further into the long term period. Temperatures tonight will be a little cooler than last night, with lows falling into the lower to middle 60s north as slightly cooler air begins to filter into the area behind the front. Further south, lows are expected to fall into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Temperatures the next couple of days will be seasonal with highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the low to middle 60s. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 By Saturday, the remnants of Helene will be well inland over TN/KY. N-NW flow aloft will maintain the dry conditions over the region through the weekend as the remnants eventually lift out to the NE. By early next week, ridging aloft will begin to nose into the region from the west, helping to keep the region dry and capped into the workweek. Thus, rain chances are expected to stay limited through the long term. No significant change in temperatures is anticipated over the weekend and into early next week. Other than a modest uptick in highs and lows, temperatures should remain seasonal with highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the middle to upper 60s. 24 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated through the period. Winds will be north to northeast tonight then north and gusty Thursday after sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible tonight as a cold front slowly slides south into the coastal waters. Offshore winds will increase in the wake of the front tonight. Meanwhile, Hurricane Helene will continue to move north over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and the strong pressure gradient on the western side of the system will augment the strengthening offshore flow over the coastal waters zones on Thursday. NBM probabilities suggest a very high likelihood (greater than 80%) that winds will be at least 20 KT beginning late tonight and continuing through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from 09Z tonight through at least 00Z Friday, with the Advisory expected to continue over the eastern coastal waters zones through 06Z Friday as they gradually taper off from west to east. Winds will gradually diminish on Friday and shift more westerly as Helene moves inland over the southeast US. A light to moderate westerly flow will continue into the weekend, but no additional headlines are anticipated at this time. 24 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 63 83 60 82 / 20 0 0 10 LCH 69 85 64 85 / 20 0 0 0 LFT 71 86 64 85 / 20 0 0 0 BPT 69 88 64 88 / 20 0 0 0 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 63 83 60 82 / 20 0 0 10 LCH 69 85 64 85 / 20 0 0 0 LFT 71 86 64 85 / 20 0 0 0 BPT 69 88 64 88 / 20 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ450- 470. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ452-455-472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...05