603
FXUS64 KLCH 240349
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1049 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

No significant changes made to the inherited grid package.
Current temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s are not
expected to drop too much lower than that tonight, before soaring
into the mid to upper 90s tomorrow. With dewpoints expected to be
in the mid to upper 70s, max heat indices will be in the 100 to
110 range. A Heat Advisory was issued for a few Parishes in
central to south central Louisiana, however it is possible that it
will be expanded to other Parishes and Counties in the CWA.
87

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Surface high pressure is centered over our region, with partly
sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures in the lower to mod
90s. Heat indices are in the 99-105 F range. A couple of isolated
showers or thunderstorms are seen in Cameron Parish and St. Mary
Parish.

Tomorrow will be a couple of degrees warmer than today, and with
that, heat advisories (minimum criteria is 108 F apparent
temperature) have been issued for portions of central and south
central Louisiana. It may need to be extended across the remainder
of central Louisiana and east Texas. That will be re-evaluated
later tonight. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow will be in Acadiana with a 20 to 30 percent chance, while
the remainder of the area will be less than 20 percent.

Tuesday will be a repeat of Monday, with warm temperatures and
scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily in Acadiana.

Overnight lows in the short term forecast period will be in the
mid to upper 70s, so if you can, stay indoors and stay cool!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The weather pattern basically stays the same in the long term.
High temperatures in the low to mid 90s, flirting with heat
advisory thresholds each afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be expected each day, and the threat will extend
further west of Acadiana into southwest Louisiana as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

No big changes from previous forecast. VFR is expected to prevail
amid the continuing influence of SFC high pressure stretching
west along the Gulf Coast and ridging aloft extending from the
Four Corners into the NW Gulf. A convective cluster and/or its
outflow associated with a back-door front sinking across the SE
CONUS may combine with sea/bay breezes across Acadiana to create
enhanced TSTM chances at KLFT/KARA late tomorrow afternoon into
early evening as depicted by some CAM guidance and the HREF. This
guidance has continued to depict rather spotty coverage, so have
maintained the VCTS at both of these terminals.

13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A persistent pattern is setting up for this week in the coastal
waters, with light southerly flow expected through the time
frame.

I extended the coastal flood advisory one more day into Monday.
High tides will be near or just above the advisory threshold of
1.5 ft MHHW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  96  75  97 /   0  20   0  20
LCH  77  93  77  93 /   0  10   0  20
LFT  77  94  78  94 /   0  30  10  40
BPT  77  94  77  94 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ029-033-044-
     045-055-152>154-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ073-074-
     252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ615.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...13