402
FXUS64 KLCH 290458
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1158 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Wx map shows surface high pressure over the Eastern U.S. keeping a
warm and moist southerly flow over our region. Radar showing one
lone shower south of Vermilion Bay, no echos elsewhere. Expecting
isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to remain
along the coast into the coastal waters overnight. Temperatures in
the lower to mid 80s still this evening, with dewpoints ranging
from the mid 70s to near 80. Only expecting to fall a few degrees,
with Saturday morning lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Ongoing
forecast on track, no updates needed.

08/DML

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Aloft, an elongated area of high pressure is centered over Texas,
with ridging extending into our area. We also have a ridge
centered over the southern Atlantic coast of FL with ridging
extending into the central Gulf.

Isolated to scattered popup showers ongoing over parts of the CWA.
This activity is expected to taper off going into the evening
hours. Similar activity can be expected for the rest of the long
term. High temperatures and dewpoints are forecast, with MaxTs in
the mid to upper 90s and MinTs in the mid to upper 70s. With
dewpoints also in the mid to upper 70s, heat indices are forecast
to reach the 105 to 110 range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Heat continues to remain a potential hazard trending into the long
range Monday with the center of an upper level ridge axis over SETX
and SWLA with very slow modification east through the remainder of
the period. Present shower / storms are introducing further moisture
into our soils. Considering additional precipitation that may occur
during the short range, local RH advection during peak diurnal
periods late in the weekend through the mid-week will need to be
carefully monitored with regards to the heat indices. Currently,
those Heat Indices are progged to build toward 105-110F for many
locations during the peak solar heating in the early to mid-
afternoons. That said, the surface ridge will remain centered well
to the north near the Great Lakes region which will allow minor
perturbations to flux across the area. Thus, while heat related
headlines are likely into the early work week across the deep south,
this pattern will have the caveat of isolated to periodic clustered
showers / storms throughout the long range which, if realized, will
temporarily create relief from the heat for some locations. As it
stands now, the most favorable locations for precipitation to
develop with the small perturbations along the southern periphery of
the ridge axis lies along Acadiana and coastal locations within the
CWA through Wednesday.

Hereafter Wednesday, the ridge axis begins to break down and broaden
across the SECONUS and Gulf of Mexico. This pattern bring signals of
continued isolated precipitation while a new shortwave from the
northern Jet organizes / deepens over the Midwest through Thursday
night. Locally, temperatures are still progged to remain in the
lower 90s along coastal locations with mid 90s trending north
toward central portions of Louisiana and interior SETX.

Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period. FEW to BKN
high clouds, remnants of yesterday`s storms, will continue to
linger across the region through the morning. A stray shower or
thunderstorm can`t be ruled out early this morning, but
probabilities are low. Expect scattered thunderstorms to redevelop
by late morning and continue through early evening. Outside of
convection, light southerly winds will prevail.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Weak high pressure at the surface will ridge across the northern
Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. This will allow for
mainly light onshore flow for the remainder of the week, to go
along with mainly low seas. Through the next several days,
scattered to occasionally widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  95  76  95  74 /  20  10  40  10
LCH  91  79  92  78 /  40  10  30   0
LFT  93  79  94  79 /  60  20  40  10
BPT  93  80  94  79 /  30   0  30   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...66