Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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359 FXUS64 KLIX 202045 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The pressure gradient over the region will gradually relax through Friday as the tropical system (Alberto) over the west Gulf continues to push westward. Sfc high pressure will build into the area from the east and northeast by late Friday. For rest of today, scattered convection is over the southwest zones and will continue to develop this attn and push west and southwest, with cell movement about 20-25 mph. Activity should diminish this evening with loss of heating. There may still be a few showers that move ashore southeast LA coast late tonight as shown by recent guidance given the favorable moist low levels and sfc convergence. Otherwise, mild/warm overnight lows in the 70s to near 80 as the winds will remain stirring overnight near 5-15 mph at times. Friday, still sufficient low level moisture for mostly sunny to partly sunny skies as low level cumulus forms by late morning and early aftn. Low chances of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly south of I-10, given the warm highs in the lower 90s and PWATs to near 1.6 inches. Max heat indices are forecast up to around 100-105. Easterly winds will not be as strong as today to about 10-15 mph, with lighter east winds further inland. Friday night, fairly quiet night in store with low temps just a bit lower owing to a drier airmass and lighter winds. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Upper ridging will continue to build westward, and be centered near the New Mexico-Arizona border on Sunday, where it will take up residence for next week. For the weekend, and potentially through Monday, there will be a southeastward extension of the ridge into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Any convective development over the weekend should remain on the isolated side and be limited to primarily the afternoon hours from about Interstate 10 southward. As we move into early next week, the upper flow across the area becomes northwesterly, which opens up the potential for shortwaves moving through and resulting in developing clusters of thunderstorms. PWAT values will be in excess of 2 inches for the middle of next week, likely resulting in storms capable of producing heavy rainfall. Daily high temperatures through the weekend and into next week are expected to reach up into the mid to upper 90s for inland areas and in the upper 80s and lower 90s for areas along the coast and to the south of the I-10 corridor. Apparent, "feels like", heat index temperatures will potentially rise to be near 110 degrees during peak diurnal heating during the forecasted period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Most of the generally weak convection has moved off to the south and southwest, with activity near KNEW, KMSY, KHUM, and KBTR. Best chance of TSRA look to be near KHUM in the next 1-4 hours. Mainly MVFR cigs around KNEW at this time, but should improve a bit later this afternoon to VFR clouds. With the loss of heating in the evening hours, the cumulus clouds will diminish. Could be some light fog in a few spots but by and large maintained VFR at this time, given the low level winds will tend to keep low levels mixed. Easterly winds of 15 knots or greater will impact terminals south of Interstate 10...KGPT/KNEW/KMSY/KHUM through the late aftn hours. Lighter winds expected tonight. Mainly easterly flow again Friday to about 8-12 kt and a few higher gusts possible with generally scattered cumulus and a low threat of a shower but kept out for now in the TAFs given low probabilities. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The forecast is generally on track for winds and seas to slowly wind down through Friday morning as the pressure gradient relaxes. Will let current small craft advisories ride for now, but with a slight extension in time for GMZ555 and GMZ575 into late evening. Winds could remain around 15 knots for a good portion of Friday, but beyond that point, should be a much more benign period into early next week, outside of the potential for thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 71 91 69 94 / 0 10 0 10 BTR 75 96 74 97 / 0 20 0 10 ASD 75 94 72 94 / 10 10 0 10 MSY 80 92 77 93 / 10 30 0 10 GPT 75 92 73 92 / 10 10 0 10 PQL 73 95 72 96 / 10 0 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for LAZ068. Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ058- 070-076-078-080-082-084-086. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Friday for LAZ058-070-076- 078-080-082-084-086. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Friday for LAZ060-066>069- 077-087. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ532- 536-538-557-577. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ550-552- 555-570-572-575. MS...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MSZ086. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Friday for MSZ086. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Friday for MSZ087-088. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ536- 538-557-577. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ552-555- 570-572-575. && $$ SHORT TERM...ARS LONG TERM....WLC AVIATION...ARS MARINE...ARS