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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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857 FXUS64 KLIX 012056 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 356 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 It will be hot, hot, hot for the short term forecast with the chance (30-40%) for rainfall from showers and storms daily in the afternoons and early evenings. Looking at the models, there will be the potential for scattered showers and storms Tuesday afternoon and early evening as peak daytime heating occurs. These storms are not expected to be severe, but lightning and brief locally heavy rainfall will be possible inside of any storms that develop. Otherwise, it will be HOT! Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 90s and approaching 100 degrees in some locations. Heat Index Values will be approaching 118 degrees for most of our area. Consequently, the Excessive Heat Watch has been upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning for tomorrow for those areas from 10AM to 7PM CT. S MS areas and coastal LA areas are expected to see heat index values approaching 112 degrees tomorrow afternoon. As a result, a heat advisory is in effect for these areas tomorrow from 10AM to 7PM CT. Remember to hydrate frequently and take lots of breaks if spending time outdoors! The overnight lows will not get below 80 degrees for many locations, which will contribute to more heat stress on the body as well. And for urban locations, keep in mind that the heat will linger longer into the evening hours as well. Practice heat safety and try to keep cool for the next couple days where possible! MSW && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Upper level ridge continues to keep hold of the weather pattern Wednesday in our area. It will slowly drift eastward and weakens a little Friday which will let a small reprieve in the scorching temperatures we have been having the past several times, with heat index values either right at or below heat advisory criteria. We still will have high PWs as well, so the usual diurnally driven 30- 60% chances of showers and storms, with the better chances further south towards the coastal areas. We still continue to watch Beryl, the official NHC forecast currently has Beryl weakening and going into southern Mexico, but as always we will monitor the situation. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the end of the forecast period for most area airports. KHUM will drop to MVFR conditions temporarily (TEMPO group in the forecast) for some showers and storms late this afternoon that will drop ceilings and visibilties briefly. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Benign marine conditions with mostly southerly and calm to moderate winds (10-15kts) expected for the marine forecast overall. Winds will be northerly briefly tonight through tomorrow morning. Showers and storms will be possible daily, which could cause locally higher winds and seas as they develop. MSW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 74 98 76 93 / 20 20 10 70 BTR 79 101 81 95 / 20 40 0 80 ASD 78 98 79 93 / 10 40 20 80 MSY 81 97 81 93 / 20 50 20 90 GPT 78 96 79 90 / 10 40 30 70 PQL 77 98 79 93 / 10 40 40 70 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ066>070. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ066>070. GM...None. MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068- 077-083>088. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068- 077-083>088. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ069>071. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ069>071. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....BL AVIATION...MSW MARINE...MSW