Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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518 FXUS64 KLIX 171739 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1239 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Large synoptic upper troughing over the eastern CONUS has devoured the remnants of PCT8. This is also bringing what remnants are left of old Francine into it as well. This whole mess has developed two large trough lobes. One over the central part of the country than turns eastward over southern Miss and then up into the PCT8 remnants. The other is located across the central gulf also spirals up into this same junction. The main forcing is heating and with relatively low convective temps, we see storms firing over the gulf waters during the morning and over land during the day. This process will continue today but this trough axis will slowly move to the coast by Wed as dry mid level air continues to press southward. This just means that precip numbers will begin to lower over the next few days. PW values are higher along and south of this axis along with very low shear values. Convective temps are around SST numbers as well and this all makes for perfect conditions for waterspouts. Some of these are impressive although not as formidable as their stronger land based counterparts. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Eventhough precip numbers will be lower for the next several days, storms won`t be non-existant. There will still be a few around and just like any given day with mid level dry air, there could be one or two strong/severe storms out there. We will have a few easterly waves that traverse the gulf late in the weekend into next week and this will at least enhance rain chances during that time frame. The large stacked high centered over the Baha Pen currently will begin to move NE and center itself over southern TX by the end of this week and we will also come under the influence of this high as well. But there is some evidence of a very aggressive upper trough digging deep into the country by the middle of next week which would bring an actual cold front into the area possibly just outside the end time of this fcast. We will see how this pans out. We are beginning to move into that time of year that favor Caribbean tropical development as well so we will keep our eyes on those areas as well over the next several weeks. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Through 20z, scattered thunderstorm activity will impact MSY and NEW with periods of gusty winds, lightning strikes, IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings. The convective threat should decrease at these terminals after 20z as the atmosphere becomes a bit more stabilized, but have opted to include VCSH wording through the evening hours at not only MSY and NEW, but also the remainder of the terminals. Around 10z, boundary layer decoupling is expected to take hold at several of the terminals, and this will lead to another round of IFR or lower stratus and fog development. MCB, ASD, HDC, BTR, and GPT will be most impacted by these IFR conditions as the low level temperature inversion allowing for the boundary layer decoupling will be most pronounced at these locations. These low ceilings and reduced visibilties will linger through 15z before gradually improving. PG && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 MCB may be the only IFR site for this morning as cigs will remain locked around OVC004 through mid morning before breaking up. A few terminals such as BTR and ASD may have cigs in the MVFR range for the same time frame but all sites will move to VFR by mid morning. Some TSRA will be around today but not in great numbers and may not be enough to mention for a few terminals today. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Winds will be quite light and variable at times over the next several days. But as we get to the weekend, winds become more stable and established from the east and rise to around 15kt. Winds and seas will be higher near and in storms and waterspouts will be possible with any of this activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 69 86 68 88 / 30 20 0 10 BTR 73 90 73 92 / 30 20 0 10 ASD 71 88 71 90 / 40 20 0 10 MSY 73 88 74 89 / 40 20 0 10 GPT 71 86 71 89 / 30 20 0 10 PQL 71 90 70 92 / 30 20 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...PG MARINE...TE