469
FXUS64 KLIX 230811
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
311 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The H5 ridge over our region will continue to spread west with
time as a weak trough begins to move south and east over the Ohio
River Valley Today and into Monday. Overall, this should keep our
region in a very dry northerly upper level flow. Surface high
pressure in place over the Gulf of Mexico will also help keep
conditions mostly benign across the region. That said, the diurnal
sea/lake breeze this afternoon or early evening may help develop
an isolated shower or perhaps a storm, especially west of the
tidal lakes. This potential although not zero will simply be the
exception rather than the rule as dry upper level conditions
continue and some afternoon mixing will help drag some of this dry
air down to the surface. Again, best potential would be where
boundary layer moisture is modified by the mesoscale boundaries.

Otherwise, on Monday a slightly rich southerly flow tries to set
up across the region. This will keep moisture at least along the
I10/12 corridor and south from effectively mixing out during the
afternoon. That said, lower end POPs are only needed with the
sea/lake breeze due to the overall weak nature of return moisture.
Because moisture is on the increase and any POPs would be later
in the day, we continue to monitor heat index values for
Monday...and a Heat Advisory will likely be needed in subsequent
packages.

Finally, will continue the Coastal Flood Advisory for coastal
Hancock Co., MS as the weak low level flow isn`t helping move the
volume of water out of the tidal lakes and sounds fast
enough...so minor coastal flooding will remain possible in the
coastal flood prone areas. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Tuesday will continue to be hot with possible heat advisories
needed once again. Similar to Monday, there will be a chance of
isolated showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon or
early evening. Again, low coverage and timing will not become much
of a limiting factor from reaching heat advisory conditions.

Eventually, a surface front will move southward by Wednesday and
Thursday. With a couple of H5 shortwaves moving overhead, expect
rain chances and coverage to increase by mid to late week. At
least this will limit heat just a bit. Later on in the medium
range, it appears the ridge out west will again build eastward
once again over the region. At the surface the residual front(s)
should wash out pretty effectively and with more subsidence and
dry air moving into the mid and upper levels, POPs should start to
decrease going into the upcoming weekend. Inversely, as POPs
increase and as height and thicknesses once again increase, expect
temperatures to respond by climbing back into the mid and upper
90s. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Prevailing VFR conditions at all terminals with high pressure
sitting overhead. Winds will be less than 10 knots varying between
northeasterly and southeasterly during the daylight hours due to
sea and lakebreeze influences. MVFR VIS possible at MCB noted on
guidance, but confidence is low in this materializing. (TJS)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

High pressure will mostly stay in control through the start of the
workweek and perhaps into midweek. Eventually, a weak frontal
boundary will move into the region and stall Tuesday into
Wednesday, which will increase shower and thunderstorm chances,
especially during the overnight hours. This initial front will
weak and another front is forecast to move into the region by the
end of the week, which will continue to provide a focus for
convection. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  73  95  74 /  10   0  40  10
BTR  98  78  99  78 /  20   0  40  10
ASD  95  76  96  77 /  10   0  30  10
MSY  94  78  96  79 /  20   0  40  10
GPT  93  77  95  77 /  10   0  30  10
PQL  96  76  98  77 /   0   0  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...RDF