089
FXUS64 KLIX 170448
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1148 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 546 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Performed a brief gridded update this evening to match current
radar trends. Pulled in the recent HRRR runs with NBM PPI01 for
PoPs, which initializes the ongoing showers/storms across coastal
portions of the area well. This activity will persist through
around 01-03Z before we dry out overnight. Few waterspouts will
remain possible in some storms that line up along confluence
axis/boundaries but the threat will continue to lower after
sunset. Quiet overnight other than some patchy fog for some areas
(primarily southern MS/Florida Parishes) but will see another
round of scattered showers/storms again primarily during the
afternoon on Tuesday. Same threats including waterspouts/tropical
funnels can be expected given little change in the state of the
troposphere, with coverage generally in the 30-40% range. KLG

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A broad upper level low pressure system centered over the Deep
South will continue to influence the forecast on Tuesday. This
upper level feature will provide just enough forcing to tap into
the seasonal PWATS of around 1.8 inches and moderate instability
to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms during peak
heating hours. The convective activity will quickly wane after
sunset tomorrow, and expect to see dry conditions in place by the
late evening hours. By Wednesday, increasing negative vorticity
advection and subsidence will push PWATS significantly lower and
reduce the convective risk to 20 percent or less. Even that 20
percent will be a push given the strength of the ridge axis
building in from the west. Temperatures will be near to slightly
warmer than average each day with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Lows will dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s each night beneath
largely clear skies and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Strong deep layer ridging will dominate the region throughout the
entirety of the long term period. This deep layer subsidence will
keep skies mostly clear and keep any rain chances at bay.
Temperatures will see a larger diurnal range as dewpoints fall
into the mid to upper 60s. Overall, the model spread is small in
the long term period, so have opted to stick with deterministic
values for temperatures. This results in highs in the upper 80s
and lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s each day.
The high temperatures are a few degrees above average, but extreme
heat will not be a concern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Primarily calm/quiet overnight tonight other than some isolated
SHRA over inland areas and some coastal TSRA offshore the MS sound
south of KGPT. Activity should diminish for land areas revealing
continued VFR conditions into daybreak. May see some patchy fog
for KMCB and surounding locations for a few hours between 10-13Z,
but will be minimal impact and not last long. Otherwise, SCT SHRA
redevelops again this afternoon, with TSRA for coastal/SE LA
terminals where prevailing VCTS was mentioned. Vicinity was
included for now due to lack of confidence for more precise
timing. Only impacts from these storms in the aftenroon will be
brief lower flight categories by low CIGs/VIS due to heavy rain.
Gusty winds up to 15-25kts can be possible as well but will be
prevailing VFR outside of any of this activity before coming to an
end around sunset and turning mainly dry overnight. KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A broad area of high pressure will become more firmly established
across the coastal waters through the duration of the week and
into the weekend. The end result will be very light gradient flow
of 5 to 10 knots and seas of 1 to 2 feet through the entire
forecast period. Overall, maritime activity will not be impacted
by any significant weather over the next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  85  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
BTR  73  87  72  88 /  30  40  10  20
ASD  70  85  70  87 /  20  40  20  20
MSY  73  85  74  86 /  30  40  20  20
GPT  71  83  72  85 /  30  40  20  10
PQL  71  84  71  86 /  40  40  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...PG