Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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089 FXUS64 KLIX 170448 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1148 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 546 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Performed a brief gridded update this evening to match current radar trends. Pulled in the recent HRRR runs with NBM PPI01 for PoPs, which initializes the ongoing showers/storms across coastal portions of the area well. This activity will persist through around 01-03Z before we dry out overnight. Few waterspouts will remain possible in some storms that line up along confluence axis/boundaries but the threat will continue to lower after sunset. Quiet overnight other than some patchy fog for some areas (primarily southern MS/Florida Parishes) but will see another round of scattered showers/storms again primarily during the afternoon on Tuesday. Same threats including waterspouts/tropical funnels can be expected given little change in the state of the troposphere, with coverage generally in the 30-40% range. KLG && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A broad upper level low pressure system centered over the Deep South will continue to influence the forecast on Tuesday. This upper level feature will provide just enough forcing to tap into the seasonal PWATS of around 1.8 inches and moderate instability to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms during peak heating hours. The convective activity will quickly wane after sunset tomorrow, and expect to see dry conditions in place by the late evening hours. By Wednesday, increasing negative vorticity advection and subsidence will push PWATS significantly lower and reduce the convective risk to 20 percent or less. Even that 20 percent will be a push given the strength of the ridge axis building in from the west. Temperatures will be near to slightly warmer than average each day with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s each night beneath largely clear skies and light winds. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday night) Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Strong deep layer ridging will dominate the region throughout the entirety of the long term period. This deep layer subsidence will keep skies mostly clear and keep any rain chances at bay. Temperatures will see a larger diurnal range as dewpoints fall into the mid to upper 60s. Overall, the model spread is small in the long term period, so have opted to stick with deterministic values for temperatures. This results in highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s each day. The high temperatures are a few degrees above average, but extreme heat will not be a concern. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Primarily calm/quiet overnight tonight other than some isolated SHRA over inland areas and some coastal TSRA offshore the MS sound south of KGPT. Activity should diminish for land areas revealing continued VFR conditions into daybreak. May see some patchy fog for KMCB and surounding locations for a few hours between 10-13Z, but will be minimal impact and not last long. Otherwise, SCT SHRA redevelops again this afternoon, with TSRA for coastal/SE LA terminals where prevailing VCTS was mentioned. Vicinity was included for now due to lack of confidence for more precise timing. Only impacts from these storms in the aftenroon will be brief lower flight categories by low CIGs/VIS due to heavy rain. Gusty winds up to 15-25kts can be possible as well but will be prevailing VFR outside of any of this activity before coming to an end around sunset and turning mainly dry overnight. KLG && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A broad area of high pressure will become more firmly established across the coastal waters through the duration of the week and into the weekend. The end result will be very light gradient flow of 5 to 10 knots and seas of 1 to 2 feet through the entire forecast period. Overall, maritime activity will not be impacted by any significant weather over the next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 69 85 68 87 / 10 40 10 10 BTR 73 87 72 88 / 30 40 10 20 ASD 70 85 70 87 / 20 40 20 20 MSY 73 85 74 86 / 30 40 20 20 GPT 71 83 72 85 / 30 40 20 10 PQL 71 84 71 86 / 40 40 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...KLG MARINE...PG