294
FXUS64 KLIX 302045
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
345 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.Key Messages...

1 - Dangerous heat will continue to affect the area through at
least Monday. Warm overnight lows will contribute to the heat
impacts and those without adequate access to air conditioning will
be especially susceptible to the heat.

2 - Tropical Depression Three has formed in the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico and is not expected to have any impact on the local
area.

3 - Hurricane Beryl, now an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane, will move through the Caribbean this week. It is
forecast to approach the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday. While it
currently looks unlikely that Beryl will bring direct impacts to
the local area, there is significant uncertainty in the forecast
beyond Friday. Therefore it is important to keep up with the
forecast throughout the week as the situation beyond Friday starts
to become clearer.

&&


.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Heat continues to be the main hazard of concern in the short term.
Looking at heat index values across the region as of 2:30p,
several stations in the current heat warning area are reporting
113 or higher, with a few stations closing in on 120. In the
advisory area, most stations are reporting 105-110. The main
exceptions are in areas where rain has cooled things off. With
the exception of some areas on the MS Coast, showers and storms
have been rather isolated, so most places are still plenty
toasty.

Still looks like a backdoor front/trough will move into the area
tomorrow. However, drier air will lag behind, with lower dewpoints
not starting to filter into the area until late tomorrow night.
This means it`ll still be plenty humid throughout the day. There`s
a question mark on temperatures though having to do with how
widespread convection will be along the boundary and when it will
fire. Current forecast calls for higher POPs to hold off until
mid/late afternoon, which would allow plenty of time to reach
advisory/warning criteria for heat before things start to cool
down a bit as a result of the rain cooled air.

Current forecast has maximum apparent temperature values of 115
to 120 degrees across areas along/south of the interstate corridor
and also near the Atchafalaya River through Wilkinson County. Some
locations through coastal SE LA and also through portions of the
northern Florida Parishes and Pearl River County are also
currently forecast to see heat index values potentially rise to
around 115 degrees. However, confidence in these areas is a little
lower. For the time being, will leave the inherited configuration
of heat advisories/warnings unchanged. However, that comes with
the caveat that some portions of the current advisory may still
need to be upgraded to a warning with the overnight forecast
update. Regardless of whether the warning is expanded or remains
unchanged, the message is the same - it`s going to be HOT tomorrow
and anyone who will be outside needs to take precautions to stay
safe from the heat.

Regarding the rain forecast, while overall rain chances are fairly
high tomorrow, coverage at any given time will likely be generally
scattered and area average rainfall totals will be generally low.
However, with the deep moisture still in place and PW values
forecast to be nearing or exceeding the daily max, some storms
will certainly be capable of efficient rainfall. Would not be
surprised if a few places see an inch or two of rain in a
relatively short period.

In other news... Tropical Depression Three has formed in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to become a tropical
storm before making landfall in Mexico late tonight or early
Monday morning. This system will have no impact on the local area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The strong upper level ridge centered just northwest of the CWA
Monday will slightly slide northeastward Tuesday but expand quite a
bit to the east. Its vertical and horizontal changes will not
translate to any meaningful changes locally on Tuesday. Still
expecting very hot temperatures with dangerous heat indices expected
over the CWA. Expect to see another round of Heat Advisory and/or
Excessive Heat Warning products issued. Convective coverage will be
the only potential relief from heat impacts, at least temporarily.
The greatest chance to see storms will be along sea breeze
boundaries for initiation. As the afternoon/evening progresses,
outflow boundaries will play a bigger part in what storms develop
where. Will also note that while overall 12hr POP is fairly high,
probably won`t see more than scattered coverage at any one point of
the day.

Longer term model solutions have been gradually suggesting that the
ridge will not weaken as much as previously thought. So although
temps may lower somewhat, still looking to be quite hot with highs
well into the mid 90s. This may result in the need for a heat
advisory every day this week (feels like last summer when we issued
a record number of heat advisories).

The end of this week into next weekend will certainly be worth
monitoring. NHC`s 5 day forecast suggests Hurricane Beryl will still
be heading west through the western Caribbean towards the Yucatan
Peninsula. Ensemble guidance beyond day 5 shows a huge spread in
tracks ranging from continued westward movement into Mexico to
curving northward through the western Gulf of Mexico. The evolution
of the upper ridge aloft today will play a big factor in long term
steering of Beryl as does its intensity late this week. With so much
uncertainty that far out, still in the monitor closely phase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with the main
concern being isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
timing of impacts at any specific location is difficult to nail
down at this point, so have generally included only vicinity
groups for the afternoon and early evening hours with the 18z
update. Any direct impacts to the terminals will need to be
handled with short term amendments.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Weather across the coastal waters will remain generally benign
outside of convection. However, the chance of showers and storms
will be fairly high tonight through at least mid week. While
higher winds and seas will accompany any storms, winds otherwise
should generally be no higher than 10-15 knots with seas/waves
mostly 2 ft or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  95  73  95 /  30  30  10  40
BTR  81  99  78  98 /  30  50  20  60
ASD  79  97  78  95 /  30  50  30  60
MSY  82  97  81  94 /  40  60  30  70
GPT  78  97  79  93 /  30  40  30  60
PQL  78  99  77  95 /  30  40  30  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034-
     035-046>048-056>060-064-065-076>090.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ034-
     035-046>048-056>060-064-065-076>090.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ036-037-039-
     066>071.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ036-037-039-
     066>071.

GM...None.
MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068-
     083>088.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ068-
     083>088.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ069>071-077.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ069>071-077.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM