376
FXUS65 KLKN 201002
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
302 AM PDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly sunny this morning with increasing clouds in
the afternoon. Temperatures continue to trend warmer, with highs
today in the 80s for most locations. Clouds largely diminish
tonight, with another round of afternoon build-ups on Friday.
Highs Friday afternoon will warm a few more degrees, with mid 80s
to mid 90s in valleys across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night. Dry today with
increasing clouds in the afternoon. Highs today will be 5-8
degrees warmer than Wednesday, with most valley locations in the
80s. The warming trend continues Friday with highs climbing
another 2-5 degrees, with mid 80s to low 90s across the region.
Clouds increase over most of the region Friday afternoon with some
cumulus build-ups over the eastern half of the CWA. Latest model
guidance has a slight increase in thunderstorm chances for Friday
afternoon though still not enough to add any thunderstorms to the
forecast.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday.

Southwesterly flow resides over the forecast area by Saturday as
the upper level trof continues to weaken while high pressure
retrogrades from the southeastern U.S. into the four corners
region. High pressure remains in place thru mid week. Nevada looks
to be mostly dry thru mid week with afternoon cumulus present
each day. The typical afternoon breezes will also be noted with
gusts around 20 mph. That said, there currently looks to be
slightly better probability for cumulus buildups Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons along the Utah border as well as a chance for
a dry thunderstorm or two. Temperatures remain warm thru mid week
with daytime highs persisting in the upper 80s to upper 90s and
overnight lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Deep upper low indicated to move into the PacNW Thursday which
would bring a cold front into northern Nevada from the northwest.
Low probability of showers and gusty winds will likely be the main
effect along with temperatures cooling a few degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions
through Thursday. Winds will be light of the W at 5KT to 15KT
with gusts to 25KT across N NV. Breezy winds out of the SW at
10KT to 20KT with gusts up to 30KT will be possible for central
NV.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The pattern through Friday continues to be
increasing clouds each afternoon, diminishing clouds overnight,
with temperatures trending warmer. Dry conditions are still
expected through Friday, though there is a 5-14% chance of
isolated dry thunderstorms Friday afternoon over mainly portions
of zones 469, 470 and eastern portions of 425. For now however
thunderstorms are not in the forecast on Friday (or any day
through the middle of next week). Well above normal temperatures
this weekend and into next week, with 90s to possibly low 100s in
valley locations. Fuels will continue to cure as warm (to very
warm) and dry conditions persist this weekend and into next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The recent stretch of cool temperatures has slowed
the rate of high elevation snowmelt, which has in turn reduced
the flow on creeks and rivers coming off snow covered higher
terrain. Temperatures trend warmer the rest of the week, with
well above normal temperatures continuing into next week. Rises on
some area streams and creeks coming off higher terrain are
expected late this week, but for now not expecting any new
flooding as the snowpack is greatly diminished.

The mainstem Humboldt River near Comus will continue with elevated
flows today and into Friday, with the flow expected to drop below
monitoring stage later on Friday.

Wildhorse Reservoir remains elevated and will remain in action
stage for the next several days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

96/92/98/96